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Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market
Vařenka, Jiří ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
The main goal of this bachelor thesis is to characterize technical analysis as a method of foreign exchange rate prediction and its possible ways of use. The first chapter focuses on the foreign exchange market characteristics, the FX market participants and retail trading conditions. The second chapter explains different types of data presentations as well as basic support and resistance approach and brings detailed classification features of indicators, which are commonly used in technical analysis by both dealers and retail traders. The technical analysis is then confronted with the efficient market theory. In the empirical part we test one simple moving average-based trading strategy in 4 modifications.
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The Application of the Technical Analysis Based on Moving Averages (Example of the EUR/USD Exchange Rate - the Data with the Daily and Hourly Frequency)
Ketzer, Jaroslav ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Kuncl, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis is focused on the application of the technical analysis in the foreign exchange market. It describes assumptions of the technical analysis, defines basic concepts connected with the technical analysis and with the foreign exchange market and specifies basic principles of the technical analysis. The predominant part of this thesis is devoted to moving averages and indicators based on moving averages. Its objective is to describe mathematically correct process of their calculation, reasons for expecting profitability of this indicators and basic ways to use. An assessment and a comparison of these indicators is conducted on analysis results of the foreign exchange development of the EUR/USD currency pair in the years 2007-2010.
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Analysis of outer economic equilibrium of the Czech Republic
Vávrová, Jitka ; Mandel, Martin (advisor)
Work deals with the analysis of some terms as for example: outer economic equlibrium, balance of payments and monetary exchange rate. It also describes the relationship between balance of payments and monetary exchange rate or between balance of payments and outer economic equlibrium. In the practical part there are graphical analysis with data of these terms of the Czech Republic in the years 1993 -- 2009. Work answers two main questions. How can balance of payments influence the monetary exchange rate? Is the Czech Republic in outer economic equlibrium?
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Convergence process to EMU - the problem of internal and external economic equilibrium (example of Slovakia and the Czech Republic)
Kutinová, Hana ; Mandel, Martin (advisor)
The aim of the thesis is to evaluate the process of convergence of the Czech Republic and Slovak Republic. The first chapter describes the historical background of the Treaty on European Union and analyzed in detail the criteria that were set for euro entry. The second part is focused on the fulfillment of the convergence criteria of the Czech Republic, the development of individual indicators in the past and presumptions into the future. The third chapter examines the fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policy in relation to compliance with the convergence criteria in the Slovak Republic. Conclusion summarizes and compares the acquired knowledge.
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The causes of the housing and financial crisis in the USA
Stelzerová, Tereza ; Mandel, Martin (advisor)
This study is focused on the causes of financial crises in the United States of America starting in 2007. There is mentioned a number of influences that had impact on this disfavourable economic development in this study. In the first part, there is mentioned the housing policy and government measures in providing mortgages. Further, there is explained the development of the banking system -- with the Federal Reserve System on one hand and commercial banks on the other. Their parts in this crises are explained in the second chapter, alongside with modern trends on financial markets. One of those trends was occurrence of new kinds of securities -- eg. CDO which is characterized. Rating agencies were also subjects which business behavior was one of the causes of this crises burst. In this study there is also captured simple line-out of events on the interbank market, when the crises became obvious. Last part is dedicated to comparison with other crisis of the modern history, especially the Great Depression.
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Introduction of the euro in the Slovak Republic from the aspect of fulfilling convergence criterion
Staník, Damián ; Mandel, Martin (advisor)
Introducing euro in the Slovak Republic is one of the greatest national historical decisions. A relative small country belongs to 16 members of the monetary union, who have adopted euro as their domestic currency. But the way to become a member was not that easy. This study describes the whole convergence process and tries to find answers for questions about positive and negative effects of euro. First part of this thesis investigates effects of euro on international trade, GDP, direct foreign investments, effects of exchange rate volatility or price transparency. Other two parts explain convergence criterions, their fulfilling by Slovakia and fixing the convergence exchange rate. Its strength is discussed in the third part. Last part is focused on first experience after launching euro in the Slovak republic, confrontation of expectations and reality affected by financial and economic crisis.
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The role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency and major currency in international trade
Škodáčková, Marcela ; Mandel, Martin (advisor)
Bretton Woods established a system of payments based on the dollar. Despite declining value in time, US dollar still plays an important role in foreign exchange markets and in in-ternational trade. This bachelor thesis examines the status of the U.S. dollar as a global re-serve currency and major international currency across several key areas. Dollar dominates in foreign exchange markets (foreign exchange intervention), in banking (reserve accumula-tion), in trade or financial transactions and it is mostly used as monetary anchor. Since 1970s, American dollars has been held by foreign institutions outside the United States. Herewith, a new element in the global economy -- Eurodollars -- arose. Eurodollar deposits are attractive for investors because they are free of most regulatory burdens imposed by U.S. authorities. The emergence of the euro as a major currency and global competitor fuelled the debate over the dollars international role. Accordingly, there are some predictions whether euro or some supranational currency might in the future rival or surpass the dollar as the world's reserve and major currency in international trade.
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The causes and consequences of mortgage crisis in the USA
Štěrbák, Michal ; Mandel, Martin (advisor)
The theme of this thesis is the mortgage crisis in the United States which has started almost three years ago after the burst of a price bubble in the American residential real estate market. The first part of the work describes the rise and collapse of technology bubble, the securitization process, monetary policy of FED and the role of rating agencies. All of these reasons lead to the current crisis. The second part analyses causes of the crisis in the global view. It focuses on global imbalances and deals with macro aggregate. Special attention is paid to growth of montary aggregate, its strukcture and developing Asian economies after the currency crisis. The last part of the work touches on implications for regulation and supervision in the USA and Europe.
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Inflation targeting as a monetary policy in the world and Czech Republic: Appraisal of quality of the unconditional forecasts of CNB
Pivoluska, Jakub ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brůna, Karel (referee)
The aim of the paper is a research of monetary policy based on the concept of inflation targeting in countries including Czech Republic. It systematically monitors the evolution in thinking of policy makers, which led into definition of price stability as the final goal of the monetary policy. It contains a description of transformation of transmission mechanisms in 20th century concluding to inflation targeting mechanisms. The paper defines the main theoretical elements of inflation targeting, surveying some special features of implementation in Czech Republic. The main focus of the paper is assessment of unconditional inflation forecast regularly released by the Czech National Bank. The naive forecast founded on previously known inflation is considered as referential group opposing the CNB forecast. The main conclusion from the analysis is that the CNB has been more successful in long term inflation forecasting than in forecasting of short term changes in inflation dynamics. The analysis did not identify statistically significant deviation of the forecast. This fact was enabled by short term of considerable overshooting of the forecast in 2008. At the same time I have come to conclusion that the CNB forecast is significantly more accurate than naive forecast and that the CNB forecast has an indisputable positive influence on the shape of inflation expectations in the economy.
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