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Behavioral finance - implications for investors
Stupavský, Michal ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Havlíček, David (referee)
Degree thesis deals with behavioral finance with a focus on behavior and psychology of an individual investor. The first part is devoted to the prospect theory that is a descriptive model of behavior of economic agents under the conditions of uncertainty and stands in a stark contrast with the traditional normative expected utility theory. The second part is devoted to the group of behavioral biases that are distortions of human thinking and judgment documented by cognitive psychology. These biases are difficult to eliminate and lead to a biased perception, inaccurate judgments and illogical interpretations. The third and final part is devoted to a questionnaire survey whose goal was to find out whether financial market participants behave according to the axioms of the expected utility theory or whether they systemically deviate from the axioms of this normative theory. The second goal of the survey was to confirm or disprove inferences of academic studies about existence of behavioral biases.
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Záchranné programy americké vlády a Fedu v době finanční krize
Savkanič, Tomáš ; Havlíček, David (advisor)
Since current financial crisis, U.S. government and Federal Reserve have vigorously commenced several bailout plans in order to avert cataclysmic financial meltdown, stabilize financial markets, constrain bank failures, and inhibit a credit freeze. Although the policies financed by taxpayer funds were originally estimated at $700 billion, they swiftly turned into over $15 trillion. This circumstance have naturally arisen a wave of critique doubting the necessity of government interventions. The negative feedbacks are based on capitalism rules where failure of weaker banks and companies is an essential and natural aspect of market. The thesis aim is to analyze the programs necessity, efficiency and effectiveness using methods such as cost-benefit analysis. In conclusion, this thesis will try to answer how efficacious the federal government bailout plans will be in the long run, even though they can seem auspicious in ameliorating present situation in the short run.
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Analysis of reactions to extreme movements on forex market in view of behavioural finance
Halva, Jakub ; Havlíček, David (advisor)
This bachelor thesis focuses on underreactions and overreactions on extreme moves on the foreign exchange market (FOREX). Theoretical part focuses on differences between efficient market theory and modern approach of behavioural finances to the analysis of price movements on the financial markets. Analytical part examines two different groups of currencies (developed market currencies and emerging market currencies) in their relation to the newly published information and analyzes reactions on these information on daily and hourly time frames. There is found no evidence of consistent underreactions or overreactions on daily time frame but there are identified statistically significant underreactions on the hourly time frame in the group of developed currencies. The last part of the thesis discusses potential flaws of the methodology used in the thesis which can potentially lead to distortions of the results.
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Analysis of calendar effects on the Prague Stock Exchange
Janek, Libor ; Havlíček, David (advisor)
This bachelor thesis is focus on the efficient market theory, the behavioral finance and on the testing of various calendar effects in the capital markets. In the first chapter the efficient market theory is described, followed by the explanation of the behavioral finance in chapter two. In the analytical part, effect of day in week (the Monday effect or week effect), effect day in month and effect month in year (the January effect) are examined on the PX index using data from the Prague Stock Exchange.
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Financial market anomalies
Gavrylyuk, Zinayida ; Havlíček, David (advisor)
This bachelor thesis is focused on the analysis of some well-known financial market anomalies. The first part deals with the efficient market theory which is confronted with the basic ideas of behavioral finance. It is followed by the more-detailed description and analysis of three selected anomalies: the December effect, the momentum effect, and the underpricing of IPO. Analytical part tests the occurrence of anomalies on selected equity markets and deals with the possibilities to exploit them. There was not found any statistically significant evidence of influence of the December effect and the momentum effect on stock returns. But there were found significant differences in underpricing of IPO across sectors of the U. S. industry. The thesis provides an overview of the characteristics and occurrence of selected market abnormalities and opens the door to a more detailed analysis.
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Effectiveness analysis of actions taken by the American government and the FED during the financial crisis
Nemček, Sebastian ; Havlíček, David (advisor)
The financial crisis of 2007 -- 2009, which is considered to be the worst crisis since The Great Depression, has called for many bailout and stimulus programs in various countries to preserve stability of the financial and economic system. The American federal governments in cooperation with The Federal Reserve have carried out a vast amount of rescue programs and actions. The aim of this bachelor thesis is analyse selected steps that have been taken and examine their practical impacts and effectiveness. This will be done with a help of corresponding statistics and data and their evolution in time. With respect to a large amount and complexity of programs it is necessary to introduce focus, costs and benefits of these programs and with a contribution of own analyses and calculations explore the impact on real world data. Stabilization programs i.e. TARP have proven to be more effective in general than stimulative ones as ARRA or QE2. ESA and CARS were half-effective while HOPE being a complete failure.
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Development of the hedge funds and their regulation in the EU
Trnovec, Martin ; Havlíček, David (advisor)
This bachalor thesis is focus on the genesis of the hedge funds and its regulation within EU. In the first part, the hedge funds industry, its development and current trends are described. In the next section the reasons which led to an effort to increase the regulation of the hedge funds, which in the EU resulted into adoption of the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) are discussed. In the practical part, the directive is analyzed together with the view to its possible impact on the hedge funds industry.
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Pension reform in the Czech Republic
Jabůrková, Eva ; Daňhel, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Havlíček, David (referee)
Reforming pensions is necessary, because the current demographic trends are mainly characterized by aging population. Significant demographic changes are going to lead to great implications for output growth. To maintain the financial stability of pension system, reforms are necessary. The first part of this thesis deal with changes in the present Czech population and the demographic forecasts for next fifty years. The second part is devoted to analyzing the setting of the pension system. The third part describes the upcoming reform which proposes to introduce a combined pension system. The last part of my thesis is devoted to the possible benefits, risks, and fiscal capacity of implementing the combined pension system.
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The behavior of stock rates in view of behavioral finance
Havlíček, David ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Veselá, Jitka (referee)
Thesis deals with analysis and interpretation of movements of share rates in the view of behavioral finance. It examines how investor psychology, as one man, and the characteristics of the crowd and their influence on the behavior of the markets. This work represents some of the theoretical concepts of behavioral finance, which are contrary to the postulates of the theory of efficient markets, as well as empirical evidence on market anomalies that serve as the basis of arguments advocates of behavioral finance. The theoretical parts are dismembered some of the main influences acting on the psychology of investors, with a strong emphasis on the scarcity of arbitration, and some selected problems of the theory. In the practical part in the three experiments proven results confirming the interpretation of behavioral finance.
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Analýza portfolia cenných papírů
Havlíček, David ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Čajka, Martin (referee)
Obchodování s cennými papíry, a hlavně akciemi, se konečně i v České republice začíná stávat jedním z klasických způsobů investování pro fyzické osoby. Tito investoři si nicméně nemohou platit drahé finanční poradce, a tak samozřejmě pátrají po relativně snadných algoritmech výběrů akcií do jejich portfolia. V bakalářské práci se tedy snažím nalézt statistické metody, které budou tento požadavek splňovat, a navíc zaručí relativně velký výnos ve vztahu k co nejnižšímu riziku. Popis a analýza se konkrétně týká historického přístupu a expertních odhadů při tvorbě portfolia. Pro doplnění těchto metod a grafické znázornění je použit Markowitzův model.
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