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National Repository of Grey Literature 2 records found  Search took 0.01 seconds. 
Model predicting the evolution of the prison population (PRISMOD)
 Dušek, Libor ; Buonanno, Paolo ; Vávra, Jan
The certified methodology describes the newly developed PRISMOD simulation model and the software that implements it. The main purpose of the model is to project the evolution of the sentenced prison population in the Czech Republic over the next 10 years. The model adopts the inflow-outflow approach and models the prison population as a function of the underlying parameters that are estimated from statistical data. The key parameters are the number of crimes recorded, the probability of charges and conviction, probability of a prison sentences, the sentence length, and the probability of parole release from prison. The model also takes into account the prisoners that enter prison upon the probation, parole, or community service violations. The prison population is modeled separately by nine crime categories and by high-security and low-security prisons.
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Does prison overcrowding loom again? Predicting the prison population in the Czech Republic
 Dušek, Libor
The study presents a projection of the prison population in the Czech Republic based on a\nnewly developed simulation model. It also points out the main trends in the criminal justice\npolicy and quantifies their impact on the past growth in the prison population.\nCzech prisons currently house 18,609 sentenced inmates. Unless crime rates and criminal\njustice policy change, we estimate that by the end of 2016 this number will reach 20,000 and\nthen level off at 20,360 inmates. If the current trends in the crime rates and criminal justice\npolicy continue, the sentenced prison population will steadily grow and will surpass 21,740\nby 2024.
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