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The Impact of Uncertainty of Project Models on Investment Decision Making
Pískatá, Petra ; Heralová,, Renáta Schneiderová - (referee) ; Pavelková,, Martina (referee) ; Hromádka, Vít (referee) ; Heralová,, Renáta Schneiderová (referee) ; Korytárová, Jana (advisor)
This doctoral thesis widely analyses the process of investment decision-making. In its individual parts, it researches models used for planning, analysing and evaluation of investments projects, but also models used for final decision about realization of the investment. Investing activity is present in world economic cycle in all it’s phases. Capital sources used for financing if the investment projects are scarce and must be handled with care. For this reason, there are many supportive methodologies and models employed in managing of the investments as well as instruments developed to miti-gate the potential project risks. However, even utilization of these instruments and models can’t guarantee the expected results. There are uncertainties, errors and in-accuracies in the process that can thwart investment decisions. The aim of the thesis is to analyse the investment decision-making process (from the initial idea to the realization of the investment project) and to identify the main un-certainties – factors influencing the success / error rate of models for investment project planning as well as the decision on their realization. The main outcome of the thesis is an overview of these factors and recommenda-tions on how to work with these factors and make the process as effective as possi-ble. Another output is an analysis and recommendations for the use of financing sources and mix of the instruments that should be used to mitigate the potential impact of risks that are connected to all investment projects.
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MODELOVÁNÍ INVESTIČNÍHO ROZHODOVÁNÍ V PODMÍNKÁCH NEJISTOTY A NEURČITOSTI
Soukupová, Ljuba ; Dalík, Josef (advisor)
This doctoral thesis is focused on the problem of investment decision making under uncertainty with computer support. On the basis of theoretical and empirical findings there was designed proposal of artificial intelligence tools implementation into the present methods of investment decision making under uncertainty. Constructive idea of this doctoral thesis is in fuzzy model of investment decision making for non-financial companies investments and implementation of this model into the knowledge base of expert system. Methodology of investment decision making under uncertainty was created on the background of mentioned practice of decision making about investment. Although from the first sight designed methodology appears to be complicated it has proved high effective in practice.
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Steam Flow Measurement Error Analysis
Barabášová, Iveta ; Touš, Michal (referee) ; Bobák, Petr (advisor)
The thesis deals with analysis of measurement uncertainty. The theoretical knowledge presented in opening chapters is applied on indirect steam flow measurement by orifice plate. Calculation of steam flow is based on knowledge of pressure difference value, static pressure value and temperature. The data are acquired by experimental measurement in laboratory. The mass flow rate uncertainty is determined by normalized procedure (according to standard ČSN EN ISO 5167) and by detailed error analysis (according to standard ČSN ISO 5168) for comparison. Whole numerical computation employs python programming language in Spyder environment. Other computation result is steam consumption of washing cycle.
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Comparison of X-ray microtomography possibilities of application in metrology with conventional approaches
Budiš, Marek ; Pernikář, Jiří (referee) ; Novotný, Jan (advisor)
Bc. Marek Budiš Comparison of X-ray microtomography possibilities of application in metrology with conventional approaches Master thesis, Institute of production machines, systems and robotics, BUT FME Brno This master thesis is focused on the analysis of metrological possibilities of using computer X-ray microtomography methods in the industry. The work contains a description of the methods, equipment and measurement. Listed are the main advantages of using X-ray tomography in metrology in comparison with coordinate measuring machine. The work deals with the measurement accuracy of microtomography machine GE V|tome|x L 240, analyzing sources of instrument uncertainty and its quantification. The work was also devised a practical table for the calculation of uncertainty of measurement. The practical part was also measuring on real samples of the industry.
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Estimation of standard uncertainty of temperature
Beníšek, Ondřej ; Havránek, Zdeněk (referee) ; Šedivá, Soňa (advisor)
The bachelor thesis deals with determination of uncertainties of direct and indirect measurements by classical method (GUM) and Monte Carlo method. Specifically, it focuses on determining the uncertainty of the entire measuring chain when calibrating temperature sensors. It contains a design of a measurement experiment for calibrating temperature sensors in a calibration device with data transfer to a computer by a communication interface using a measuring instrument. The procedure for determining the uncertainty of the temperature measurement entering the proposed measurement is also given. The thesis also describes the realization of the practical measurement and the calculation of the standard uncertainty for the measurement by the classic method and Monte Carlo method. The results obtained are compared and evaluated.
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Device Proposal for Measurement and Evaluation of Environmental Thermal State
Janečka, Jan ; Němeček, Pavel (referee) ; Kratochvíl, Zdeněk (referee) ; Vdoleček, František (advisor)
The thesis deals with evaluation of the environmental thermal state in closed rooms with people inside the room. The achievement of thermal comfort is related to thermal balance of human body. People are producing heat during their work, which has to be carried away from the body to surrounding area by radiation, convection, conduction, respiration and evaporation. The intensity of heat removal is influenced by environmental parameters, especially by air temperature, mean radiant temperature, air velocity and humidity. Personal factors as energy expenditure of human body and clothing resistance are influencing the intensity of heat removal as well. People are able to influence the thermal comfort by their behaviour in given environment, appropriate clothing and regulation of basic environmental parameters. CSN EN ISO 7730 standard states that environmental parameters should be estimated or measured. The operative temperature is than evaluated from collected data. This operative temperature is defined as the temperature of black enclosed area where the human body will be by convection and radiation sharing the same amount of heat as in real inconsistent environment. Nowadays on the market there is no cheap solution for sensor which is able to evaluate the operating temperature and could be used in buildings. There are a lot of professional sensors which have very high accuracy, but are very expensive. Therefore are mainly used only for research or for single and exceptional measurement of environmental thermal state in rooms. The thesis is therefore focused on proposal of suitable (compact) operative temperature sensor assembled according to valid regulations and standards. Emphasis is placed mainly on the sensor price together with guarantee of sufficient accuracy. The proposed sensor is providing information to control system which is than able to adjust the parameters of environment using appropriate way based on relevant requirements. Here is some space for energy savings due to possible continuous measurement and evaluation of environmental thermal state in different rooms. Therefore, during continuous measurement no unnecessary rooms overheating in winter as well as unreasonable cooling in summer should occur. This research and solution is than reflected in reduction of energy consumption used for building operation and subsequently reduction of the pollutants production. This issue is being watched with increasing interest. Another advantage is that whole system is able to work autonomously without human intervention. People no longer have to continuously adjust air temperature because the control system is able to evaluate the most appropriate adjustments based on objective data obtained from the sensor. The thesis includes subsequent verification of proposed sensor as well as the definition of sensor technical parameters including analysis of measurement uncertainties.
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Deep Learning Model Uncertainty in Medical Image Analysis
Drevický, Dušan ; Kolář, Martin (referee) ; Kodym, Oldřich (advisor)
Táto práca sa zaoberá určením neistoty v predikciách modelov hlbokého učenia. Aj keď sa týmto modelom darí dosahovať vynikajúce výsledky v mnohých oblastiach počítačového videnia, ich výstupy sú väčšinou deterministické a neposkytujú mnoho informácií o tom, ako si je model istý svojou predpoveďou. To je obzvlášť dôležité pri analýze lekárskych obrazových dát, kde môžu mať omyly vysokú cenu a schopnosť detekovať neisté predikcie by umožnila dohliadajúcemu lekárovi spracovať relevantné prípady manuálne. V tejto práci aplikujem niekoľko rôznych metrík vyvinutých v nedávnom výskume pre určenie neistoty na modely hlbokého učenia natrénované pre lokalizáciu cefalometrických landmarkov. Následne ich vyhodnotím a porovnávam v sade experimentov, ktorých úlohou je určiť, nakoľko jednotlivé metriky poskytujú užitočnú informáciu o tom, ako si je model istý svojou predpoveďou.
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Flow rate measurement
Chudý, Dávid ; Hudec, Martin (referee) ; Himr, Daniel (advisor)
The bachelor thesis systematically introduces the most frequently used flowmeters with emphasis on the source of measurement uncertainty. In the practical part, the clamp on ultrasonic flowmeter from FUJI ELECTRIC was used in laboratory flow measurement. The aim of the experiment was to determine the effect of the input value error on the resulting flow. The combined standard uncertainty for one flow was also determined, including the most significant sources of inaccuracy. These are the uncertainty of the pipe diameter measurement and the meter error specified by the manufacturer. The data measurement processing led to the conclusions as stated in the manual by the manufacturer.
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Evaluation of standard uncertainty of Climatic Chamber
Dojava, Václav ; Havránek, Zdeněk (referee) ; Šedivá, Soňa (advisor)
The thesis deals with the problematics of confirmation of the climatic chamber CTS 65/50, which is a component of CVVOZE testing laboratory. Theoretical part deals with the analysis and description of methods of confirmation of climatic chambers based primarily on technical standards. This part then contains a brief description of a theory of measurement uncertainty. Practical part deals with the design of measurement procedure, which was used for confirmation measurement of ten temperature setpoints. This section then also contains an analysis of the measured data with the evaluation of standard combined uncertainty of temperature measurement. The last part contains an evaluation of the confirmation results, which were the basis for the determination of whether the climatic chamber meets the requirements for the steady-state temperature stability inside the workspace resulting from the standards for the climatic testing
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