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Exchange rate prediction using fundamental analysis
Parmová, Jana ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
Bachelor project is focused on forecasting of exchange rate development. There are used basic economic fundamentals for this prediction: price level, inflation, interest rate and balance of payments. Models of exchange rate determination, based on these fundamentals, are introduced in the project. There are described concretely: purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, international Fisher effect and balance of payments theory. Validity of these theories is analyzed in practical part of this project. There are used economic dates from Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. Analysis is processed according to methods described in theoretical part. Results show, that using of methods based on inflation or interest rate is incorrect. Balance of payment theory seems to hold, but prediction of exchange rate development through this method is very complicated. Central banks of analysed countries present in financial stability reports, that exchange rate is determined by a lot of factors. So it is very difficult to comprise the factors into one model.
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Methods of prediction of exchange rate and analysis of the exchange rate of selected country
Burdeláková, Ingrida ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with possibilities of prediction of future development of exchange rate. The exchange rate is shortly characterized at the beginning together with approaches of its determination like technical and fundamental analysis. Further three methods of long-time forecasting like purchasing power parity, interest rate parity and balance of payments theory are explained in more details. Practical part begins with description of the euro and real development of its exchange rate to U.S. dollar from the implementation of the euro in 1999 till the end of the year 2009. The validity of individual theories from the theoretical part is verified through formulas and other methods based on information about inflation rate, interest rate and balances of payments. Results of selected approaches are summarized in conclusion together with suitability of their practical application and possible reasons of differences between theory and reality.
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Exchange rate policy of China
Štursová, Lucie ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Ondřich, Libor (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the topic of chinese exchange rate policy. First part of this thesis describes the theory of exchange rates and their systems. Following parts are dedicated to China, the aim si to analyse the evolution of the regime of chinese currency renminbi from the inception of the People's Republic of China till the present, and read up effects resulted from the actual arrangement. The question of exchange rate reserves, economic growth and indipendence of monetary policy is also mentioned. At last, possible changes in chinese exchange rate system are suggested, namely the transition to more flexible system of chinese currency, and capital account convertibility of renminbi.
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Mutual relations of balance of payments, exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves
Zelba, Michal ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This work assesses influence of balance of payments on exchange rate movement, whether nominal or real, and feed back. First part defines balance of payments and content of its items. Further, main theories of exchange rate movements are presented. In the ensuing empirical section economies of similiar type are compared, firstly two large, rather open economies of USA and United Kingdom. The next comparation analyzes differences between two small, rather open economies, and that is Czech republic and Switzerland.
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The Role of USD in a Globalized Economy
Vávrová, Barbora ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
The main aim of my thesis is to describe the development of the American dollar's position within the historical background, its role in a globalized economy and analyze the current position of the dollar as the world's leading currency. The thesis is divided into three parts. First part is dedicated to the theoretical background concerning exchange rates and currency regimes. The second chapter considers the history of the international monetary system with the relation to the dollar. The third chapter analyzes the current situation and characteristics determining the role of American dollar. This chapter also describes some problems of American economy, analyses exchange rate of dollar against Euro and gives possible forecast of dollar's position for the future.
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Exchange rate arrangements in transition economies
Kudličková, Anna ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
The choice of the exchange rate regime is the topic substantially discussed in the economic literature and especially it is discussed in the case of the transition economies. The aim of the thesis is to make a survey of the impact of exchange rate regimes on these economies. Within the thesis there are analyzed the regimes and the conomies of the four transition countries, namely Poland, Hungary, Czech republic and Lithuania. The thesis assesses the benefits and costs of the individual regimes in each country since the beginning of the economic transformation up to nowadays.
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The role of exchange rate regimes in monetary crises
Vránová, Jana ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
This thesis is devoted to the role of exchange rate regimes in monetary crises. The first chapter elucidates basic terms concerning exchange rate, e.g. quotation, convertibility, central parity. In the second chapter there is every particular regime and its role in crisis described in detail. The term "monetary crisis", its reasons and consequences are explained in the third chapter. This is put into practise in the fourth chapter, which deals with the Czech crown's monetary crisis in 1997. The last chapter analyses the impact of the implementation of the supranational currency on the trend of the macroeconomic indicators.
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Development of the euro exchange rate in relation to the ECB interest rates
Houštecký, Martin ; Kalínská, Emílie (advisor) ; Čajka, Radek (referee)
The first part of this bachelor thesis describes the monetary policy of the ECB. This chapter is linked together with the second chapter, where the analysis of the development of the interest rates of the ECB is carried out. The third chapter tries to fulfil the main objective of this thesis - the empirical analysis of the relationship between the exchange rates of the euro against four different currencies, US dollar, British pound, Swiss franc and Czech crown, and the interest rate differential of the interest rates of relevant central banks. The last chapter shortly illustrates the impacts of the euro exchange rates development on companies in the euro area.
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