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Kalkulace zavedení alternativního pohonu dopravních prostředků ve středně velkém podniku
Gelnarová, Alice
This thesis deals with the introduction of alternative propulsion vehicles in a medium-sized enterprise. The starting point of the work is time series of fuel prices modelation: CNG gas, Natural 95 and Diesel during the years 2008--2013 and a two-year prediction of the prices, including the estimation of the uncertainty associated with the development of prices. The prediction is then used in simulations to estimate the probable development and effect of investments. The result of this thesis is formulated in a general methodology for the possible purchase of new cars in the midmarket and practical applications to mid-sized company MIKROP ČEBÍN a.s.
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Valuation of the company DEKTRADE, a.s.
Krupa, Štěpán ; Scholleová, Hana (advisor) ; Habrnal, Marek (referee)
The aim of this Master's Thesis is valuation of the company DEKTRADE, a.s. as determined by possible independent analytic using publicly accessible information or data that could be acquired when in touch with management of the company as at January 1st 2013. Results of the thesis are supposed to analyze the corporation itself from the strategically-financial point of view, specify the height of its value if offered to a potential buyer and at last but not at least to help the board of managers to see the conceivable outlook of main competitors on DEKTRADE, a.s. The Thesis is split to theoretical and practical part where the first one should constitute solid methodological base for the final valuation of the company. Keystones of the latter are strategic and financial analysis followed by financial plan and specific techniques of valuation of the company. The ending of the Thesis is devoted to Monte Carlo simulation of results with respect to risk exposition of the computed values.
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Valuation of the company Rodinný pivovar BERNARD a.s.
Langr, Jan ; Scholleová, Hana (advisor) ; Čámská, Dagmar (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to determine the value of equity of the company Rodinný pivovar BERNARD a.s as of July 31st, 2012. To assess the value of the company the DCF Entity approach is used. The thesis itself is divided into two separate parts. The first contains the theoretical basis for company valuation and general description of methods and procedures that are used. The second part introduces the business, analyses its relevant market and macro environment and sets the prognosis for its future development. This prognosis is essential to set up a financial plan which is then used to determine the value of the company for its owners. The final supplementary chapter describes the possibilities of using Monte Carlo simulation as an extension to the classical methods of company valuation.
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Scenario and simulations approaches to the analysis of project risks
Špaček, Miroslav ; Fotr, Jiří (advisor) ; Scholleová, Hana (referee) ; Souček, Ivan (referee)
Dissertation deals with the analysis of investment projects. Specifically it is focused on the utilization of probability approaches to analysis of investment projects. These approaches are represented by scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.The treatis contains critical comparison of both approaches and offers the set of recommendation to the application of both methods. The inherent part of this work is postaudits analysis which are accompanied by the set of recommendation as well.
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Risk Analysis using Crystal Ball
Krátká, Kateřina ; Jablonský, Josef (advisor) ; Kuncová, Martina (referee)
The thesis is focused on risk and uncertainty in decision theory. It introduces principles of choosing the best alternative in case of uncertainty and risk, as well as different ways how to quantify and manage the risk, therefore the risk management. The thesis also discusses simulation, definition of random numbers and generating of these numbers. Monte Carlo method is widely used in this area. One of the applications based on Monte Carlo method is Crystal Ball; detailed description of this application is also mentioned. At the close, an example of the capital project valuation is provided as the demonstration of Crystal Ball application.
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Valuation of company Auto Koutek, s.r.o.
Jiránek, Lukáš ; Sieber, Patrik (advisor) ; Nowak, Ondřej (referee)
Goal of thesis "Valuation of company Auto Koutek, s.r.o." is to determine the value of company for shareholder on 31st December 2009 that should take place in evaluating of company's managers. Thesis is divided in theoretical part, which summarize processes and methods used in valuation of company, and practical part. Firstly practical part analyzes company's performance and its surroundings. This part is followed by financial plan of company for years from 2010 to 2017. Valuation DCF models are than based on this financial plans. Value of company is than analyzed with sensitivity analysis and by Monte Carlo simulation that are trying to analyze uncertainty connected with calculated value of company.
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Business Plan
Habrnal, Marek ; Scholleová, Hana (advisor) ; Tyll, Ladislav (referee)
The graduation thesis deals with the evaluation of the individual entrepreneur's business plan. To decide whether a project is accepted or not, was drawn up a detailed business plan, sometimes referred to as a feasibility study. The theoretical part discusses the purpose of the business plan, elaborates on the basic essentials of the business plan, the form and the principles of treatment. Based on a synthesis of findings from the literature the author further elaborates on some of the tools of managerial and economic practises and their applicability in the business plan. The aim of the theoretical part is inter alia to provide guidance to anyone who is processing the business plan without necessity of studying comprehensive literature. The practical part already specifically deals with author's business plan. On its basis it should be possible to decide whether to implement the plan. It is specific narrowly focused Internet project. The methods used to evaluate the project revealed the potential of the project and simultaneously pointed out to the potential risks. The entire business plan then finds the image in the used modern approach to the evaluation of investment projects -- the Monte Carlo simulation.
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Valuation of the enterprise ZAPA beton a.s.
Zapletal, Tomáš ; Kislingerová, Eva (advisor) ; Kotáb, Jiří (referee)
The aim of this Master's thesis was to find out enterprise value dated 1.1. 2011, characterise risk connected with this value, for example as a variability of possible results and to judge how the enterprise was affected by the economic crises. I used method discounted cash flow in variant FCFF to calculate enterprise value. I used regression analysis as the basic method to predict the most significant value generator, sales, then I adjusted the results according to the predictions published in qualitative studies of the Czech building industry. The demand for enterprise production was reduced as a result of the economic crises; it enforced production reduction and led to decline in sales and profit in years 2009 and 2010, deteriorating of rentability indicators and long-term assets turnover. I found out the enterprise value with the help of software Crystal Ball also by the stochastic model. In this case I regarded the factors influencing the enterprise value as random quantities. Variability of the possible results ranges between upper and lower limit, i.e. between 1,8 and 3,2 billion crowns.
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Methods of the calculation of Value at Risk for the market and credit risks
Štolc, Zdeněk ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Paholok, Igor (referee)
This thesis is focused on a theoretical explication of the basic methods of the calculation Value at Risk for the market and credit risk. For the market risk there is in detail developed the variance -- covariance method, historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation, above all for the nonlinear portfolio. For all methods the assumptions of their applications are highlighted and the comparation of these methods is made too. For the credit risk there is made a theoretical description of CreditMetrics, CreditRisk+ and KMV models. Analytical part is concerned in the quantification of Value at Risk on two portfolios, namely nonlinear currency portfolio, which particular assumptions of the variance -- covariance method a Monte Carlo simulation are tested on. Then by these methods the calculation of Value at Risk is realized. The calculation of Credit Value at Risk is made on the portfolio of the US corporate bonds by the help of CreditMetrics model.
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