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What the Data Say about the Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic?
Baxa, Jaromír
In this paper, we provide the estimates of the fiscal multiplier in the Czech economy, based on the methodology of the fiscal VAR. The basic idea, adding fiscal variables into the macroeconomic VAR model, follows Blanchard and Perotti (2002). For estimation of our model, we utilize the dataset with quarterly data on a sample from the first quarter of 1998 to the second quarter of 2009. Our main results are as follows. Firstly, government expenditures have a positive and significant impact on the GDP. By contrast, a response of GDP on a shock to government revenues is slightly negative and in most specifications not significant. Secondly, these results are robust to various sensitivity checks. Consequently, the restoration of sustainable fiscal policy should focus rather on the revenues side than in the government expenditures, since a significant cut in government spending would probably have slowed down economic growth.
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Modelování vkusu na finančních trzích
Vácha, Lukáš ; Vošvrda, Miloslav
Heterogeneous agents model with the stochastic forecasts formation is considered. Fundamentalists rely on their model employing fundamental information basis to forecast the next price period. Chartists determine whether current conditions call for the acquisition of fundamental information in a forward looking manner rather than relying on the past performance. This paper shows an influence of the mood change on the financial market structure. This feature is simulated by changing of the forecast structure trend.
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Heterogeneous agent model with memory and asset price behaviour
Vošvrda, Miloslav ; Vácha, Lukáš
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis provides a theoretical basis on which technical trading rules are rejected as a viable trading strategy. Technical trading rules, providing a signal of when to buy or sell asset based on such price patterns to the user, should not be useful for generating excess returns. Technical traders and chartists tend to put little faith in strict efficient markets.
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