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Model for short-term forecasting of photovoltaic energy production
Kotlorz, Lukáš ; Pelikán, Emil (advisor) ; Hlávka, Zdeněk (referee)
Nowadays, electricity production from photovoltaics power plants is becoming important increasingly. In order to set production to other power plants, it is necessary to predict the generation of electricity from these sources. The thesis is mainly devoted to models for short-term prediction, which is based on weather forecast. The models were designated by beta regression and linear regression with transformed explanatory variable. One part of thesis is devoted to Clear sky model, which is used to estimated the maximum possible production at given hour. 1
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Analysis of wind gusts over the area of the Czech Republic
Pop, Lukáš ; Sokol, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Picek, Jan (referee) ; Pelikán, Emil (referee)
The Ph.D. thesis deals with extreme wind gust analysis over the area of the Czech Republic. The first part of the thesis deals with processing of wind measurements, in particular maximum wind gusts measurements. Analysis of high-frequency wind measurement using 3-D sonic anemometer on the Kopisty station is included. Homogenization of the highest daily wind gusts was performed. Descriptive statistical analysis of measured wind gust values was performed. The following part of the thesis describes statistical theory of extreme values and discusses its applicability to wind gust data. Some theoretical findings were obtained. Numerous numerical experiments were performed focused on evaluation of proposed method. In the last part of the thesis station measurements were processed using the proposed methods and a model of dependence between extreme and mean wind climate was derived. The model was applied to the map of mean wind climate calculated earlier on the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and thus a map of extreme wind climate was obtained. The accuracy of this map was estimated. The map was compared with other maps of extreme wind calculated by other authors earlier.
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Popis modelu TDD, verze 3.5
Konár, Ondřej ; Brabec, Marek ; Kasanický, Ivan ; Malý, Marek ; Pelikán, Emil
Zpráva obsahuje popis tvorby a použití modelu TDD pro odhad spotřeby zemního plynu zákazníků s měřením typu C. Součástí zprávy je metodika použití modelu TDD operátorem trhu, dále metodika použití TDD provozovatelem distribuční soustavy (PDS), popis aktualizace modelu TDD a popis předávaných souborů s parametry. Model je otestován na reálných datech ze zákaznického kmene distribuèní spoleènosti RWE GasNet a na datech z mimořádných průběhových měření. Dokument zahrnuje stav ke dni 15.10.2014.
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