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Voting in central banks: An empirical analysis
Jonášová, Júlia ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Fišerová, Tereza (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to assess informative power of the voting records of central banks. The research concentrates on the following aspects: predictability of future repo rate changes based on the voting records in longer horizons, level of disagreement in Monetary policy committee (MPC) and financial markets' expectations, comparison between results of the analysis before and during the financial crisis and weighting every vote according to attendance of the policymaker. The results confirm that voting records are, indeed, informative about future monetary policy changes and can increase predictability of the particular central banks. Negative dispersion coefficient for the Bank of England (BoE) and Czech National Bank (CNB) suggests that increase in uncertainty stimulates looser monetary policy. For the BoE and Riksbank voting records signal the change of the repo rate approved also at the further meetings, which is partially true for the Czech Republic and Poland. Regarding the period of financial crisis, it is shown that markets heavily rely on the minutes as the source of knowledge and the magnitudes of the estimate for the skew coefficient are much higher. The effect of experience is present in the case of CNB and National Bank of Poland (NBP).
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An Empirical Investigation of Wage Discrimination in Professional Football
Blaha, Jakub ; Kocourek, David (advisor) ; Jonášová, Júlia (referee)
Salary discrimination is a phenomenon that arises from ineffective behaviour of economic subjects. Even though its presence is incompatible with the the- ory of profit maximization, salary inequality still persists in the human society. Nevertheless, the investigation of this topic has been largely unheeded in the environment of professional football. In our empirical research, we use the most recent data to investigate the salary gap between white, African American and Hispanic players in the American Major League Soccer. Besides ordinary least squares method that focuses on the impact of ethnicity for the average player, we adopted the method of quantile regression to reveal wage gap between play- ers with below-average pays. Observing each player's performance for 3 seasons, we uncovered salary discrimination against African Americans and Hispanics in the lowest decile of the salary distribution that amounts to 18.9% and 15.3%, respectively. Furthermore, we utilized the difference-in-differences (DID) esti- mator to find no effect of the increasing level of invested money on the wage gap. JEL Classification J30, Z20, Z21, J71 J31 J15 Keywords discrimination, race inequality, football, quan- tile regression, OLS, wages, racism Author's e-mail kubablaha@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail kocourek.david@email.cz
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Short-term electricity price forecasting - evaluation of selected hybrid models
Svoboda, Štěpán ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Jonášová, Júlia (referee)
In this thesis a thorough study of the previous literature and the division and special aspects of EPF was carried out. Then the evaluation and comparison of several models was done - the ARIMA, SVR, SVRARIMA and PSF model. This comparison was done on the intra-day Nord Pool market, which is quite unique as almost all short-term EPF is carried out on the day-ahead market. Our results are robust as the modeling was done on 100 test periods and we have tested the difference in predictive accuracy using the modified DM test. Our conclusion is the PSF model is inadequate in our intra-day set- ting and the overall ARIMA model seems to outperform the SVR and SVRARIMA model somewhat. The dominance of ARIMA is not very strong and a further investigation of the causes of these results can better illuminate the strengths and weaknesses of these models.
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Communication of the European Central Bank and contagion on financial markets
Jonášová, Júlia ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
v Abstract The aim of this thesis is to assess the effect of central bank communication on joint occurrence of extreme returns and on extreme movements shared by two stock markets. The research concentrates on the following aspects: predictability of increased share of countries experiencing extreme returns in the eurozone based on the nature of policymaker's statement and also a set of control variables, change in probability of extreme returns joint occurrence after president's speech, determinants of joint occurrence when non-standard measures were announced and finally, effect of crisis period. Additionally, determinants of shared extreme movements between particular countries are examined. The results suggest that communication nature or crisis are not significant predictors of extreme returns joint occurrence. Moreover, markets seem to react jointly to ECB president's speech only when they have extremely high returns. Furthermore, markets jointly react on days of nonstandard measures announcement differently. We also found that in the first quantile dovish statements tend to increase returns above their mean in case of Greece and Germany, and Greece and the UK. Rest of the pairs of countries have opposite reaction to dovish tone and communication is significant in the 95th quantile for the pair...
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Voting in central banks: An empirical analysis
Jonášová, Júlia ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Fišerová, Tereza (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to assess informative power of the voting records of central banks. The research concentrates on the following aspects: predictability of future repo rate changes based on the voting records in longer horizons, level of disagreement in Monetary policy committee (MPC) and financial markets' expectations, comparison between results of the analysis before and during the financial crisis and weighting every vote according to attendance of the policymaker. The results confirm that voting records are, indeed, informative about future monetary policy changes and can increase predictability of the particular central banks. Negative dispersion coefficient for the Bank of England (BoE) and Czech National Bank (CNB) suggests that increase in uncertainty stimulates looser monetary policy. For the BoE and Riksbank voting records signal the change of the repo rate approved also at the further meetings, which is partially true for the Czech Republic and Poland. Regarding the period of financial crisis, it is shown that markets heavily rely on the minutes as the source of knowledge and the magnitudes of the estimate for the skew coefficient are much higher. The effect of experience is present in the case of CNB and National Bank of Poland (NBP).
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