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What is the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna?
Jančovič, Pavel ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to estimate bilateral equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna relative to Euro and to determine if the Czech currency is undervalued or overvalued relative to the market equilibrium. We employ fundamental (FEER) and behavioral (BEER) equilibrium exchange rate models, which enables to measure the currency position relative to the market rate. To tackle the uncertainty of the implied equilibrium exchange rates that differ among alternative specifications of the models, we aggregate the estimates via principal components analysis. The perception on the market is that Czech koruna is undervalued, since the intervention regime imposed by the Czech National Bank in the 2013, was defending the exchange rate floor of 27 Czech korunas to Euro. Then, we extend conventional specifications of BEER models for variables representing exchange rate interventions and forward rates offered on the market because both can have protracted effects not only on spot rates but on adjustment towards long-term equilibrium as well. The original models with fundamental factors show equilibrium exchange rate near to 25 CZK/EUR. However, extended models with interventions show higher equilibrium exchange rate, near to 27 CZK/EUR. Thus, there is possibility of slow adjustment near to the...
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Global Changes in Income Distribution: Causes and Impacts
Jančovič, Pavel ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Břízová, Pavla (referee)
Téma bakalárskej práce: Global Changes in Income Distribution: Causes and Impacts Author: Pavel Jančovič Supervisor: doc. Ing. Tomáš Cahlík CSc. Abstract This thesis examines income inequality in the world. The main subject of investigation is the Gini coefficient, which determines the inequality. To measure the Gini coefficient are used different variables that could be empirically influencing. Econometric analysis consists of 34 countries of the world except Africa. Countries are divided into 5 groups. The measured period is between 1991 and 2011.We use the method of least squares, fixed effects and random effects. After performing regressions, results are commented, the best model is chosen, significant and non-significant variables are stated. We test models for heteroscedasticity, first order autocorrelation of the residuals and normality. Afterwards, we point out possible causes of the results. We refer to the countries in which income inequality is not a problem and reduce or stabilize Gini coefficient on low rate. Also we refer to countries, which has rate of the Gini coefficient, or income inequality increased in measured period.
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