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Inflation Target Setting in Emerging Markets
Orosz, Előd ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Herrmannová, Lenka (referee)
This thesis focuses on emerging market economies which are using inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. We present an analyses of development of inflation target in emerging market economies and detected its determinants by econometric methods. We used Random Effects Interval Regression, Ordinary Least Squares, Random Effects Generalized Least Squares and Fixed Effects estimator. The thesis contains two main parts. First part surveys theoretical background of inflation targeting focusing on emerging markets. Second part contains an empirical study on inflation targeting. We find out that inflation target in emerging countries is affected by more factors than central banks report. Moreover we found out that price level has an inverse effect on inflation target if we examine just emerging countries, than if we examine whole group of inflation targeting countries.
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Forecasting and nowcasting power of confidence indikators:Evidence for Central Europe
Herrmannová, Lenka ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis assesses the usefulness of confidence indicators for nowcasting and short term forecasting of the economic activity in the Czech Republic and three other Central European countries. The predictive power of both the Czech business confidence indicator and the customer confidence indicator is examined using two empirical approaches. First we predict the likelihood of economic downturn using logit models, later we estimate GDP growth out of sample forecasts in the framework of vector autoregression models. The results obtained from the downturn probability models confirm the ability of confidence indicators (especially the business confidence indicator) to estimate the current economic situation, so called nowcast. Results from the out-of-sample GDP growth value forecasting are ambiguous. Nevertheless the customer confidence indicator significantly improved original forecasts based on the model with standard macroeconomic variables and therefore we conclude in favour of its predictive power. Cross- country comparison confirms economic downturn nowcasting power of confidence indices in Hungary and Poland and fails to confirm such an ability of Slovak confidence indicators. One-quarter-ahead forecasts brought mixed results and therefore we conclude that nowcasting and forecasting properties of...
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Forecasting Ability of Confidence Indicators: Evidence for the Czech Republic
Herrmannová, Lenka ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis assesses the usefulness of confidence indicators for short term forecasting of the economic activity in the Czech Republic. The predictive power of both the business confidence indicator and the customer confidence indicator is examined using two empirical approaches. First we predict the likelihood of economic downturn defined as a discrete event using logit models, later we estimate GDP growth out of sample forecasts in the framework of vector autoregression models. The results obtained from the downturn probability models confirm the ability of confidence indicators (especially the business confidence indicator) to estimate the current economic situation and to anticipate economic downturn one quarter ahead. Results from the out-of-sample GDP growth value forecasting are ambiguous. Nevertheless the customer confidence indicator significantly improved original forecasts based on a model with standard macroeconomic variables and therefore we conclude in favour of its predictive power. This result was indirectly confirmed by OECD as the Czech customer confidence indicator has been included as a new component in the OECD domestic composite leading indicator since April 2012.
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Forecasting and nowcasting power of confidence indikators:Evidence for Central Europe
Herrmannová, Lenka ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis assesses the usefulness of confidence indicators for nowcasting and short term forecasting of the economic activity in the Czech Republic and three other Central European countries. The predictive power of both the Czech business confidence indicator and the customer confidence indicator is examined using two empirical approaches. First we predict the likelihood of economic downturn using logit models, later we estimate GDP growth out of sample forecasts in the framework of vector autoregression models. The results obtained from the downturn probability models confirm the ability of confidence indicators (especially the business confidence indicator) to estimate the current economic situation, so called nowcast. Results from the out-of-sample GDP growth value forecasting are ambiguous. Nevertheless the customer confidence indicator significantly improved original forecasts based on the model with standard macroeconomic variables and therefore we conclude in favour of its predictive power. Cross- country comparison confirms economic downturn nowcasting power of confidence indices in Hungary and Poland and fails to confirm such an ability of Slovak confidence indicators. One-quarter-ahead forecasts brought mixed results and therefore we conclude that nowcasting and forecasting properties of...
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Analysis of the transformation process from a limited company to a joint-stock company
Bečvaříková, Vendula ; Balcar, Petr (advisor) ; Herrmannová, Lenka (referee)
This thesis is mainly focused on the creation of a new strategy for one Czech company operating in the software market, in order to reinforce its position in this market and increase its competitiveness. Moreover, an effect of change of the legal form within the fulfilling of the proposed strategy is analysed here. After a brief introduction in (mostly) legal aspects in terms of forms of entrepreneurship, particularly limited liability company and joint stock company, the internal and external analysis of the company under consideration is conducted, focusing especially on SWOT analysis of the company and on the prospective impact of the transformation on its components. The following part describes the proposal of the new strategy which is created on the basis of the standard strategic framework and then, Balanced Scorecard method is used for strategy development into sub-indicators and strategy implementation itself. According to the confrontation of the factors of SWOT analysis with the transformation of the legal form presented above and according to the final analysis of the effect of this transformation on the implementation of the individual strategic goals, the transformation is evaluated as a useful step in the operation of the company. As a conclusion, there are therefore several steps...
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Baltic States: Lessons from the Crisis
Čermák, Jiří ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Herrmannová, Lenka (referee)
Between 2000 -2007 Baltic countries were among the fastest growing economies in Europe, but in 2008 they were struck by very deep recession. Unlike the other Central and Eastern European countries, the Baltics maintained fixed exchange rate regimes and it raised the question about their effects on the economies. This work focuses on the external imbalances of the Baltic economies. It analyzes the compositions and sources of the current account deficits and discusses other influential factors. Detailed discussion is devoted to the capital inflows and their determinants. The thesis also contains empirical study which analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate regime and current account balance. We find that the current account deficits were not sustainable not only because of their sizes but also for their structure. The empirical analysis of the relationship between exchange rate regimes and current account deficits did not bring clear - cut results which would prove the hypothesis that the fixed exchange regimes negatively affect the current account balances. 1
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Inflation Target Setting in Emerging Markets
Orosz, Előd ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Herrmannová, Lenka (referee)
This thesis focuses on emerging market economies which are using inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. We present an analyses of development of inflation target in emerging market economies and detected its determinants by econometric methods. We used Random Effects Interval Regression, Ordinary Least Squares, Random Effects Generalized Least Squares and Fixed Effects estimator. The thesis contains two main parts. First part surveys theoretical background of inflation targeting focusing on emerging markets. Second part contains an empirical study on inflation targeting. We find out that inflation target in emerging countries is affected by more factors than central banks report. Moreover we found out that price level has an inverse effect on inflation target if we examine just emerging countries, than if we examine whole group of inflation targeting countries.
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Forecasting Ability of Confidence Indicators: Evidence for the Czech Republic
Herrmannová, Lenka ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
This thesis assesses the usefulness of confidence indicators for short term forecasting of the economic activity in the Czech Republic. The predictive power of both the business confidence indicator and the customer confidence indicator is examined using two empirical approaches. First we predict the likelihood of economic downturn defined as a discrete event using logit models, later we estimate GDP growth out of sample forecasts in the framework of vector autoregression models. The results obtained from the downturn probability models confirm the ability of confidence indicators (especially the business confidence indicator) to estimate the current economic situation and to anticipate economic downturn one quarter ahead. Results from the out-of-sample GDP growth value forecasting are ambiguous. Nevertheless the customer confidence indicator significantly improved original forecasts based on a model with standard macroeconomic variables and therefore we conclude in favour of its predictive power. This result was indirectly confirmed by OECD as the Czech customer confidence indicator has been included as a new component in the OECD domestic composite leading indicator since April 2012.
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