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Political Cycles and Their Impact on Macroeconomic Indicators in the Central Europe
Botka, Jan ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Buliskeria, Nino (referee)
This study examines the impact of the political cycle on macroeconomic indica- tors in Central Europe, with a special focus on the Czech Republic. Thirty-nine Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models were constructed using data from 1998 to 2022 aiming to apply the Political Business Cycle (PBC) theory. It is the frst time the VAR model has been used in this context for most of the selected countries. As the main variables in the model, subject to potential infuence by political cycles, were chosen real GDP, infation and unemployment. The results showed that no consistent signifcant relationship exists across all coun- tries, with each nation displaying varying connections and occasional contra- dictions to the presupposed theory. Nevertheless, certain associations between the political cycle and macroeconomic indicators were observed in individual countries, supporting the presence of the PBC to some extent in the Czech Re- public, Hungary, and Austria. Conversely, no evidence or even contradictory results were found for the PBC in Slovakia, Poland, and Germany. Addition- ally, the presence of the "partisan" political cycle was identifed in Hungary but not in the Czech Republic, Germany, or Austria. Poland's signifcant results exhibited signs opposite to those expected. This research opens new...
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