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Low Interest Rates and Asset Price Fluctuations: Empirical Evidence
Ali, Bano ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
The thesis focuses on estimating the effect of expansionary monetary policy concerning asset prices, specifically house and stock prices as they are of pri- mary importance in financial markets. A structural vector autoregressive model is used including data for the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, and the United States from 2007 to 2017. Moreover, instead of short-term nominal interest rate, the shadow policy rate is used to measure the stance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy. It is useful when policy rates of central banks are at or near zero as it neglects the zero-lower bound. Using both impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, results suggest that higher interest rates are indeed associated with lower asset prices. That is confirmed by including two different estimates of shadow rates into the model and observing the effect for two specific types of assets. More precisely, house prices react almost immediately showing the most substantial decrease for the United Kingdom, while stock prices slightly increase at first and de- crease afterward with similar size of the effect for all areas under consideration. Finally, the discussion of how the monetary authority should react to asset price fluctuations is provided, summarizing the vast amount of literature...
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Low Interest Rates and Asset Price Fluctuations: Empirical Evidence
Ali, Bano ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
The thesis focuses on estimating the effect of expansionary monetary policy concerning asset prices, specifically house and stock prices as they are of pri- mary importance in financial markets. A structural vector autoregressive model is used including data for the Euro Area, the United Kingdom, and the United States from 2007 to 2017. Moreover, instead of short-term nominal interest rate, the shadow policy rate is used to measure the stance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy. It is useful when policy rates of central banks are at or near zero as it neglects the zero-lower bound. Using both impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, results suggest that higher interest rates are indeed associated with lower asset prices. That is confirmed by including two different estimates of shadow rates into the model and observing the effect for two specific types of assets. More precisely, house prices react almost immediately showing the most substantial decrease for the United Kingdom, while stock prices slightly increase at first and de- crease afterward with similar size of the effect for all areas under consideration. Finally, the discussion of how the monetary authority should react to asset price fluctuations is provided, summarizing the vast amount of literature...
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The Role of the Interest Rate in Causing the Great Depression
Ali, Bano ; Ryska, Pavel (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis analyzes the major causes of the severe economic depression appeared in 1930s. It focuses on the role of the interest rate in its causing and the duration of it. The aim is to - through the comparison of three economic schools - Keynesians, Austrians, and Monetarists - show the different views of understanding the interest rate as such and then apply them on the situation before and during the crisis to explain various perspectives on its role in possible causing of the contraction of economic activity in a process of the business cycle. The comparison outlines, how deeply individual schools differ. While Keynesians considered the dear money and high interest rates as the main cause of the crisis and similarly to Monetarists, they both suggested keeping them on low level, Austrians promptly refused the policy of low interest rates. Further, firstly, it shows the inverse relationship between the growth of money supply and interest rates in 1920s and proves that the decrease of interest rates was caused to large extent by the increased quantity of money. Secondly, it provides the evidence that the growth of money supply and of investment spending was larger than the growth of gross domestic product.
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