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Essays in Applied Economics
Afunts, Geghetsik ; Jurajda, Štěpán (advisor) ; Walther, Selma (referee) ; Kocharkov, Georgi (referee)
The first chapter of this dissertation investigates whether the introduction of unilateral divorce legislation (UDL), which started in the late 1960s af- fected the educational structure of marriage. Based on marriage and divorce certificate data covering 1970-1988, we (Štěpán Jurajda and I) provide new evidence on the evolution of the educational structure of marriage inflows (newlyweds) and outflows (divorces). We estimate a difference-in-differences model to gauge the impact of UDL on both of these flows. While UDL did not contribute to rising homogamy (the tendency towards married partners having the same level of education), it did affect the educational structure of marriage: it made generally unstable hypogamous couples (women marrying less educated partners) less likely to divorce, and it made homogamous cou- ples more stable than hypergamous ones (women marrying more educated partners). The second chapter argues that the changes in family regulations that affect marriage stability could also affect fertility decisions and thereby the fertility differentials of homogamous couples (with the same education level) versus non-homogamous couples. It has been shown that the introduction of joint custody laws (JCLs) in the US affected family decisions, including overall fertility, but there is...
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Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Afunts, Geghetsik ; Cato, M. ; Schmidt, T.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.
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Who divorces whom: unilateral divorce legislation and the educational structure of marriage
Afunts, Geghetsik ; Jurajda, Štěpán
There is evidence that the introduction of unilateral divorce legislation (UDL) starting in the late 1960s increased US divorce rates. We ask whether making divorce easier affected the educational structure of marriage. Based on marriage and divorce certificate data covering 1970-1988, we provide new evidence on the evolution of the educational structure of marriage inflows (newlyweds) and outflows (divorces), and estimate UDL difference-in-differences effects on both flows. While UDL did not contribute to rising homogamy (the tendency towards married partners having the same level of education), it did affect the educational structure of marriage: it made generally unstable hypogamous couples (women marrying less educated partners) less likely to divorce, and it made homogamous couples more stable than hypergamous ones (women marrying more educated partners).
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