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Random rates of return in financial and insurance mathematics
Pejic, Mladen ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee)
Title: Random rates of return in financial and insurance mathematics Author: Mladen Pejic Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: RNDr. Jitka Zichová, Dr., Department of Probability and Mathema- tical Statistics Abstract in English language: The thesis is focused on the study of stochastic life annuities. It represents a combination of basic probability with financial mathe- matics and life insurance. The first part is focused on financial mathematics. Special attention is paid to the calculation of present and future values of annui- ties with stochastic interest rates. In the second part, we demonstrate the use of random interest rates in calculations of present values of annuities related to life insurance. In the third part, we focus on the application of log - normal distribu- tion, which is mostly used in real life problems. In the last part, a numerical study is presented. We asses the effect of the log - normal distribution parameters on the present value of the annuities and we examine the accuracy of the estimates made by the method of moments. ii
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LDA approach to operational risk modelling
Kaplanová, Martina ; Mazurová, Lucie (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
In this thesis we will deal with the term of operational risk, as it is presented in the directives Basel 2 that are mandatory for financial institutions in the European Union. The main problem is operational risk modeling, therefore, how to measure and manage it. In the first part we will look at the possibility of calculating the capital requirements for operational risk under Basel 2, mainly the calculation with the internal model. We will describe the specific procedures for the development of the internal model and we will focus on Loss Distribution Approach. The internal model will be based on modeling of loss in each risk cell separately. In the second part we will show, how to include modeling of dependence structure between risk cells to the internal model with using copulas. Finally, we will show the illustrative example, where we will see, whether the modeling of dependence leads to a reduction of the total capital requirement. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Financial time series model identification
Fučík, Jan ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Prášková, Zuzana (referee)
This thesis deals with the financial time series model identification. The univariate and multivariate ARMA models and their identification criteria are described. The procedures using the correlation structure of the time series and some information criteria are presented. The functioning of the criteria is verified on simulated time series AR, MA and ARMA. Afterwards, the criteria are compared in terms of reliability and simplicity of use. Finally, there are two examples of univariate and multivariate ARMA model identification for the real financial time series. The data and the R programme source code are enclosed on a CD. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Special problems of non-stationarity in financial time series
Radič, Pavol ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Prášková, Zuzana (referee)
The aim of this thesis is a detailed analysis of selected approaches of unit root testing. First chapter deals with the basic knowledge of the theory of stochastic processes. Further, we describe Dickey-Fuller tests, t-tests and likelihood ratio tests for the presence of a unit root and derive their asymptotic properties. Numerical studies include comparison of accuracy of the parameter estimates, estimating quantiles of the presented distributions, their graphical presentation and determination of power of our tests. The acquired theoretical knowledge is applied on real data which were analyzed using software Mathematica and R. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Treshold models for financial time series
Stacho, Michal ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Prášková, Zuzana (referee)
In modeling of financial time series is widely accepted ARCH model with conditional heteroscedasticity, but this model is not able to operate with other non-linearities such as leverage or asymmetry (the volume of revenue is different when the yield is positive or negative). Therefore, we work in this thesis with threshold models TAR, TARCH and DTARCH. These models have piecewise linear conditional mean and DTARCH model even piecewise linear conditional variance. The main utility of threshold models is further specified test of threshold nonlinearity, which is the base for comprehensively defined procedure of determining the type of model, including an estimate of all its parameters. At the end, the procedures introduced in this text are demonstrated using simulated and real data. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Linear and bilinear models for time series from economics and finance
Kotrbová, Anežka ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Prášková, Zuzana (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with linear and bilinear models used for modelling time series data applicable in economy and finance. The thesis consists of a theoretical and a practical part. The theoretical part briefly describes ARMA and bilinear process, issues of linear model identification, estimation of the parameters and moment properties of ARMA(1, 1) a BL(1, 0, 1, 1). The typical characteristics of bilinear models and the quality of the estimated parameters are examined by the simulation study in software Mathematica 10. The acquired findings are applied in search for a suitable model for time series of share prices of the company ČEZ. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Unit root testing with applications to financial time series
Pechmanová, Kateřina ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Hendrych, Radek (referee)
This work deals with linear ARMA processes, which are intended to describe the behavior of time series, and also with analysis of selected time series. First, the basic concepts are introduced together with the descriptions of the ARMA models. Further, the Dickey-Fuller test for a unit root, as an approach to the verification of nonstationary time series, is introduced. An important part is the practical application of these models and tests on simulated and real data. Real analyzed data capture developments in the exchange rate of Czech crown against Euro. All calculations were performed in the Mathematica software. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Selected problems and methods in multivariate data analysis
Goduľová, Lenka ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
Title: Selected problems and methods in multivariate data analysis Author: Lenka Goduľová Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: RNDr. Jitka Zichová, Dr. Abstract: The bachelor thesis deals with processing multidimensional data. The task was to apply selected methods on financial data. The thesis is composed of the theoretical section and the analysis of a particular database. The first four chapters deal with basic relations and definitions concerning random vector and variable, multidimensional data and the independence test in a contingency table. The following section is devoted to defining the particular methods selected: cluster analysis and discriminant analysis. In the practical section these methods are applied to a database of clients of a German bank. Keywords: random vector, multivariate distribution, multivariate random variable, contingency table, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis.
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Pensions from the point of view of utility theory
Kudlík, Michal ; Cipra, Tomáš (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
This work deals with pensions from the perspective of utility theory. We list several basic principles, characteristics of pensions and their classification. Part of the work is also the utility theory from the ordinal point of view of utility theory as well as in terms of cardinal utility functions. Afterwards, we formulate the tasks for the selected utility functions, which we will try to optimize by using utility functions. We transfer the task of maximizing objective function to the task with extreme bound corresponding to various annuity markets which we will solve by theory of Lagrange multipliers. Final result of the work should be calculation of annuity equivalent wealth per common utility function Constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) using different relative risk aversions and showing the optimum consumption strategy for pensioners calculated based on mortality tables for Czech republic from 2012. 1
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Financial risks with copulas
Prelecová, Natália ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
The aim of this thesis is the thorough description of the copula theory. It deals with the theory's basic definitions, classes and characteristics. In addition, relations between copulas and dependence measures are explained. Furthermore, we evaluate the possibilities of copula's parametres estimation and selecting the right copula for real data. Then, the copula theory is interconnected with the basic risk measures in finance. We describe the elementary categorization of financial risks and standard risk measurement approaches. We also define basic risk measures with the emphasis on value at risk. Lastly, we present a real data case study of a selected portfolio.
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