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Economic Research Bulletin (2015, No.2). Volume 13, Number 2, November 2015, Monetary Policy Challenges in a Low-Inflation Environment
Česká národní banka
As a consequence of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) inflation has dropped sharply worldwide. The low levels of inflation have persisted since then due in part to the recent fall in oil prices. Such circumstances represent a new situation for central bankers, who have usually been concerned with the opposite problem – how to respond to persistently high inflation. Challenging times for policy makers usually mean very exciting times for researchers, and this is what research depar tments in central banks are experiencing at the moment. Many new research questions relating to the prolonged period of low inflation have appeared, and the current issue of the Bulletin aims to introduce some of them which CNB researchers are currently in vestigating.
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Economic Research Bulletin (2015, No.1). Volume 13, Number 1, May 2015, Forecasting
Česká národní banka
Appropriate, state - of - the - art forecasting techniques are crucial for guiding the monetary policy decisions of central banks. At the same time, knowledge of the initial conditions in the economy is a prerequisite for good forecasts. Such knowledge is incorporated as expert judgement on top of the model forecast. It is also important to understand which factors contribute to differences between two (old and new ) forecasts. This edition of the Research Bulletin presents four articles that describe recently developed forecasting techniques, the role of expert judgement in the forecasting process, and a new structural model forecast evaluation technique used at the Czech National Bank.
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Economic Research Bulletin (2014, No. 2). Volume 12, Number 2, November 2014, Macroprudential Research: Selected Issues
Česká národní banka
Central banks significantly expanded their domain following the global financial crisis. Macroprudential policy, which marries the issues of financial stability and financial supervision with macroeconomic stabilisation, became its new core competence. This new competence needed a wide analytical basis. Therefore, the E uropean System of Central Banks established the Macro - prudential Research Network (MaR s), which concluded its three year existence in June 2014. This edition of the Research Bulletin presents five articles that rank among the CNB’s numerous contributions to the MaRs, covering diverse issues related to macroprudential policy.
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Economic Research Bulletin (2014, No.1). Volume 12, Number 1, April 2014, Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System
Česká národní banka
This edition of the Research Bulletin presents four articles that introduce the modelling framework of the various stress tests used regularly by the Czech National Bank. The first article focuses on the methodology of the current stress tests employed to assess the stability of the banking sector. It explains the links between the core and satellite models and how various adverse scenarios are generated to test the stability of the Czech banking sector. It also provides guidelines on how stresstest parameters should be calibrated. Concerns about liquidity played an enormous role in the recent financial crisis, and the second article therefore focuses specifically on the liquidity risk of the banking sector. It presents a well-defined methodology used also by other central banks, but tailors it to the specific conditions of the Czech banking sector. The third article presents a recently developed methodology for assessing the ability of Czech households to pay their debts. Using detailed household-level data, it quantifies how different adverse events, such as unemployment and higher interest rates on debt repayment, affect households’ incidence of becoming financially distressed. The fourth article introduces stress-test models for the insurance sector. It discusses the specificities of the stress tests developed for this sector. It also sets out how to extend these already advanced tests to align them with changes going on in the regulatory framework.
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