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Forecast of deflationary forces in economy and impact on asset values
Kaška, Jan ; Mařík, Miloš (advisor) ; Krabec, Tomáš (referee)
In current valuation and economics disciplines, it is a commonly held belief that financial crisis is over and a big threat to world economic system is inflation. While many assumptions of these claims are of certain significance indeed, this thesis proves a non-trivial chance of outright deflation. Author of this work also shows that attempts of governments and central banks aimed at avoiding deflationary scenarios ultimately cause slower growth and elevated variance in economic activity. Due to existence of such causality, a new variable "tau" entering into CAPM model's risk premium was developed as the original model had previously not captured for impacts of monetary and government policies. In order to quantify a probability and strength of deflationary forces in developed world, three distinct approaches were utilized -- quantitative assessment, historical comparisons, and a pure economic theory based reasoning. Value of variable tau was determined by regressing relationship between implied risk premium and changes in monetary policy while testing for different time lags. Results of the work point to a 10-20% chance of deflation in developed world. Extremely loose monetary policy worldwide than warrants augmenting additional 1-2% risk premium to current implied risk premium of US stock market. Although newly defined models would certainly need more work and refining, author believes that the augmented CAPM version does a good job capturing the "irrational exuberance" mentality attached to policies of major central banks around the world. The three year lead of model-based risk premium compared to the implied one is perceived as one more contribution to current valuation process and understanding of risk.
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