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Analysis of the sector of credit unions
Hynková, Kristýna ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Hejdová, Martina (referee)
The sector of credit unions has undergone a remarkable evolution. The situation had seemingly changed after the period of instability in the late 1990's but the bankruptcy of Unibon, Metropolitní spořitelní družstvo and WPB Capital proved that the credit unions still pose a potential threat for financial market. In 2014, a Novel of the Savings and Credit Cooperatives Law, which will probably lead to change of the structure of these financial institutions´ markets, was passed. Furthermore, another limitation on credit unions, related e.g. to their balance sheet total is going to be imposed 1.1.2018. According to the fact that in general they aim to either eliminate or dispose of this type of financial institution, the amount of these subjects is likely to decrease, as a consequence of transformation into a bank or termination of business. This bachelor thesis analyses contemporary condition of the sector of credit unions and intends to predict their presumable development, which leads to three possible eventualities.
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Building a predictive model for bankruptcy
BÜRGER, Pavel
Thesis deals with complex process of creation of new bankruptcy model for predicting business failure, while this process involves selection of quality sample, verification of classification accuracy of already existing bankruptcy models, profile analysis and finally the derivation of specific equation of bankruptcy model. The derivation is performed by using two selected statistical methods, discriminant analysis and logistic regression. Two bankruptcy models Bürger's index DA12 and Bürger's index LR12 were derived by using the mentioned statistical methods. The new models distinct advantage is, unlike already existing and renowned bankruptcy models, that they are focused on classification of micro and small enterprises in terms of Czech Republic, while classification accuracy one year before failure is by individual models 74.8 % and 81.87 %. Derived models have clear interpretation (no grey zone) and easy calculation, which brings a possibility for micro and small entrepreneurs to check their business partners in terms of failure prediction.
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Stock Price Bubbles
Li, Xiaokun ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Veselý, Marek (referee)
Economic bubbles are playing an increasingly significant role in the current global economy. We believe these bubbles are to a certain extent dominating the real economy, and, therefore, research based on this specific economic phenomenon is becoming increasingly popular and important. The focus of this master's thesis is based upon analysis of stock price bubbles. This thesis contains author analyzed historical cases representative of stock price bubbles; summarizations of their traditional features; common factors causing their formation; and reasons leading to their bursting. Solutions to the dilemma of stock price bubbles are discussed in depth, and emphasis is placed upon clearly deciphering different theoretical approaches regarding this phenomenon-not only from the efficient market hypothesis viewpoint but also from the perspective of behavioral finance. The research contains testing and measuring methodologies of stock price bubbles, and the author's view concerning them is strongly supported by the results within the empirical data-testing chapter. Upon reading, one can expect to achieve a basic overview of this forefront science.
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The circumstances of speculative bubbles presence in financial markets
Ševčík, Michal ; Veselá, Jitka (advisor)
This bachelor thesis is focused on financial crises arisen throughout economic history. It explains the term of financial crisis, speculative bubble, and it presents chosen models of financial crises, which can be identified within concrete historical cases analyzed in the first two chapters. Theoretical approaches to the circumstances of speculative bubbles presence are part of the final section of this work, where the main roles play the rationality and irrationality of an individual, crowd, and market and psychological factors as well. At the end, a possible usefulness is mentioned contrary to the events of the first two chapters.
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