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Modelling potential distribution of invasive plants Indigo bush (Amorpha fruticosa) and Goji berry (Lycium barbarum) in the Czech Republic
Müllerová, Soňa ; Moudrý, Vítězslav (advisor) ; Barták, Vojtěch (referee)
Biological invasions are currently considered to be one of the major threats to biodiversity. Invasive species are introduced species naturalized in regions outside their native range with both ecological and economic impact known from many regions all over the world. In the Czech Republic, vascular plants constitute a major group of invasive species. They are characterized by the ability to adapt, spread and occupy new sites. Early identification of potentially dangerous species constitute a possible way to prevent further spread. This bachelor thesis presents the use of species distribution modelling technique as a tool for assessing invasive potential and predicting species invasions. The aim was to create the model of invasive shrub species Indigo bush (Amorpha fruticosa) and Goji berry (Lycium barbarum) potential distribution in the Czech Republic and explore the significance of each predictor variable including variables derived from digital elevation model. Models were created in the resolution of 100 m using Maxent method based on presence-only data and ten predictor variables including three topographic variables: elevation, slope and aspect. The results show that the most significant variables for both species are elevation, land cover which is the most important one for Amorpha fruticosa, and temperature annual range. Slope variable is significant for Lycium barbarum. Aspect is not significant. In terms of AUC discrimination measure, high values were achived for both species. AUC value for Amorpha fruticosa is 0,961 and 0,906 for Lycium barbarum. However, the realism and quality of the model is significantly influenced by the stage of invasion and also by complexity and accuracy of input data.
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