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The efficient frontier during the financial crisis.
Kocholová, Soňa ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Makovský, Petr (referee)
Bachelor thesis deals with the basics of portfolio theory and its applications, mathematical and graphical models in the theory of portfolio and, finally, an estimate of the specific efficient frontiers during the financial crisis. The aim of the work is to estimate, graphically illustrate and to compare the efficient frontier for specific states in the course of eight years. These sets of portfolios are composed of two assets and that is one risk and one risk-free asset. A result of this combination is an efficient frontier illustrated in a form of the capital market line and its slope given by so called risk premium. We will focus on the comparison in time for each state individually and at the same time each year separately between the states themselves. Finally, a specific example of portfolios with various share of risk and risk-free assets are compiled lying on the line of an efficient frontier.
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Vliv nálady na sociální síti Twitter na kurz akciových titulů
Fiala, Vojtěch
This diploma thesis deals with a question of identification of causality between sentiment on social network Twitter and a price of specific, publicly traded stocks on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). By a multi criteria analysis were chosen stocks of Microsoft Corporation and Apple Inc. There is constructed a model, which identifies authors messages on Twitter -- tweets and sentiment which they carry in relation to companies. Success of this model is examined by both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The thesis is trying to provide a solution to current and potential investors and management of the companies in order to take better decisions in allocating funds and managing the companies.
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Explaining the Czech Interbank Market Risk Premium
Geršl, Adam ; Lešanovská, Jitka
This paper focuses on the development of the in terbank market risk premium in the Czech Republic during the global financial crisis. We e xplain the significant departure of interbank interest rates from the key monetary policy rate by a combination of different factors, including liquidity risk, counterparty risk, forei gn influence, interbank relations, and strategic behavior. The results suggest a relevant role of market factors, and some importance of counterparty risk.
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Information Extraction of Probability and Risk of Returns using Options Prices
Cícha, Martin ; Trešl, Jiří (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Málek, Jiří (referee)
The issue of forecasting the future price of risky financial assets has attracted academia and business practice since the inception of the stock exchange. Also due to the just finished financial crisis, which was the worst crisis since the Great Depression, it is clear that research in this area has not been finished yet. On the contrary, new challenges have been raised. The main goal of the thesis is the demonstration of the significant information potential which is hidden in option market prices. These prices contain informations on probability distribution of the underlying asset returns and the risk connected with these returns. Other objectives of the thesis are the forecast of the underlying asset price distribution using parametric and nonparametric estimates, the improvement of this forecast using the utility function of the representative investor, the description of the current market sentiment and the determination of the risk premium, especially the risk premium on Czech market. The thesis deals with the forecast of the underlying asset price probability distribution implied by the current option market prices using parametric and nonparametric estimates. The resulting distribution is described by the moment characteristics which represent a valuable tool for analyzing the current market sentiment. According to the theory, the probability distribution of the underlying asset price implied by option prices is risk neutral, i.e. it applies only to risk neutral investors. The theory further implies that the distribution of real world can be derived from the risk neutral distribution using utility function of the representative investor. The inclusion of a utility function of representative investor improves the forecast of the underlying asset price distribution. Three different utility functions of traditional risk theory are used in the thesis. These functions range from the simple power function to the general function of hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA). Further, Friedman-Savage utility function is used. This function allows both a risk averse investor and a risk loving investor. The thesis also answers the question: Are the current asset prices at so high level that the purchase of the asset means a gamble? The risk premium associated with investing in the risky asset is derived in the thesis. The risk premium can be understood as the premium demanded by investors for investment in a risky asset against the investment in a riskless asset. All the theoretical methods introduced in the thesis are demonstrated on real data coming from two different markets. Developing market is represented by shares of CEZ and developed market is represented by S&P 500 futures. The thesis deals with demonstrations in single point in time as well as in available history of the data. The forecasts of the underlying asset price distribution and the relating risk premium are constructed in the available data history. The goals and the objectives of the thesis have been achieved. The contribution of the thesis is the development of parametric and nonparametric methodology for estimating the underlying asset price probability distribution implied by the option market prices so that the nature of the particular market and instrument is captured. The further contribution of the thesis is the construction of the forecasts of the underlying asset price distribution and the construction of the market sentiment in the available history of data. The contribution of the thesis is also the construction of the market risk premium in the available history and the establishment of the hypothesis that the markets gamble before the crisis.
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Do czech dealers of marihuana live at theirs moms?
Hvězda, Mikuláš ; Šťastný, Daniel (advisor) ; Bartoň, Petr (referee)
This thesis is focusing on risk premium of retail dealer of marihuana. My work is based on a questionnaire research between retail dealers. Firstly I specify a hourly wage of a dealer, which is 250 CZK/h. Afterwards I compare resulting wage with a wage in the legitimate sector and the difference between the dealer`s wage and the legitimate wage is the risk premium caused by trading on black market. The results show that the risk premium makes 52 % of the dealer`s wage. Another issue I`m focusing on are causes of risk premium and their quantification. Finally I am explaining the fall of retail prices between 2007 and 2008 when the prices fell from 250 to 200 CZK/g.
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Fed Model Testing
Hříbalová, Pavlína ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Havlíček, David (referee)
Diploma Thesis focuses on Fed Model testing and its credibility on market data. The research is based on Gordon Model and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), it explains, what the basic features of the Fed Model are and describes its derivation from Gordon Model. The Thesis shows possible Fed Model limitation. It uses the US market, Great Britain and Germany 1979 -- 2011 data to demonstrate validity of the model. Eventually possible reasons of Fed Model development in period 2002 -- 2011 are presented.
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RISK IN INVESTMENT DECISIONS
GARDOŠ, Radek
The topic of this thesis is the evaluation of risk in enterprise. First section summarizes common knowledge related to investment process and states methods used for analysis of risk and investments efficiency. Second part evaluates economic efficiency and risk of a future investments in the particular enterprise. Projects are critical to the realization of performing organization's strategies. Each project contains some degree of risk and it is required to be aware of these risks and to develop the necessary responses to get the desired level of project success. Because projects' risks are multidimensional, they must be evaluated by using risk evaluation methods. The aim of this part is to provide an analytic tool to evaluate the project risks. At first the thesis analysis net present value and other investment criteria of the construction project without risk factors. Subsequently the projects' risks are are evaluated by using risk premium. To study of how projected performance varies along with changes in the key assumptions on which the projections are based is used the sensitivity analysis. The main sources for data was the enterprise environment.
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Electricity Futures
Michalovský, Michal ; Paholok, Igor (advisor)
Bachelor thesis deals with the forward electricity market. It describes how the liberalized electricity market and the energy exchanges work with in-depth focus on the Czech Republic. The basic theoretical approaches towards the price formation in electricity market and the valuation of electricity futures are also shown. Furthermore, the thesis analyses futures prices on Prague energy exchange compared to prices on other European exchanges and to prices of other energy commodities. The last part of the thesis calculates risk premia in monthly futures on Prague energy exchange.
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Estimate of dicount rates for purposes of evaluation
Hackl, Zbyněk ; Brada, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Šedivý, Jan (referee)
The Diploma Thesis deals with the problems of an estimate of the discount rate and the single parameters used especially in the two basic methods for its determination: the surcharge (premium) method and the CAPM model. In the first part there are presented the effects which influence the discount rate and thus also the method of its estimate. The second part of the thesis describes the surcharge (premium) method which includes an estimate of the riskfree rate, the risk premiums and the liquidity premium. The third part of the work is devoted to the CAPM model, and it is divided into two chapters. Firstly, the CAPM model is derived in chapter 3. Then, in chapter 4, there are presented the possibilities of estimate of its single parameters and premiums which are most frequently added to the basic CAPM model.
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