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National Repository of Grey Literature 2 records found  Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Using Bayesian Classifiers
 Hátle, Lukáš ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Málek, Jiří (referee)
The aim of this study is to evaluate feasibility of using Bayes classifiers for predicting corporate bankruptcies. The results obtain show that Bayes classifiers do reach comparable results to then more commonly used methods such the logistic regression and the decision trees. The comparison has been carried out based on Czech and Polish data sets. The overall accuracy rate of these so called naive Bayes classifiers, using entropic discretization along with the hybrid pre-selection of the explanatory attributes, reaches 77.19 % for the Czech dataset and 79.76 % for the Polish set respectively. The AUC values for these data sets are 0.81 and 0.87. The results obtained for the Polish data set have been compared to the already published articles by Tsai (2009) and Wang et al. (2014) who applied different classification algorithms. The method proposed in my study, when compared to the above earlier works, comes out as quite successful. The thesis also includes comparing various approaches as regards the discretisation of numerical attributes and selecting the relevant explanatory attributes. These are the key issues for increasing performance of the naive Bayes classifiers
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Business Cycle and Traffic Fatalities
 Hátle, Lukáš ; Houdek, Petr (advisor) ; Jaklín, Jiří (referee)
The paper tests the hypothesis regarding the assumed relation between economic cycle and mortality caused by road traffic accidents. The analysis has been done using fixed effect regression method on panel data collected in 20 EU member countries between years 1995-2008. The results (with a limited significance) may show that one percentage point decrease of the unemployment rate results in a one percentage increase in the road traffic mortality rate. The effect is caused by the increased traffic intensity as well as by changes in the drivers' behaviour that accompany the economic growth (e.g. higher consumption of alcoholic beverages). The results hint further that the strength of the relation differs for various age categories. The strongest relation between the economic cycle and the mortality was found for the young generation, 15-29 years of age. In this age group, one percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate means 1.77% increase in the road traffic mortality rate.
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