Original title: Economic research bulletin (2009, No.1)
Authors: Česká národní banka
Document type: Trade print
ISSN: 1803-7089
Year: 2009
Language: eng
Abstract: This issue tries to figure out which deviation factors were important in the Czech case. The presented articles propose several potential suspects: a series of shocks, the forecasting system and the decision-making system. The articles then suggest which methodologies could be used to decipher the deviation puzzle and provide empirical results for the Czech case. These results suggest that deviations of inflation from the target in the past decade cannot be explained by a single factor in the Czech case, and that the role of each factor changed over time. Anti-inflationary shocks are the most frequently identified source of the deviations. In the initial stage of inflation targeting, the forecasting system and the decision-making process also contributed. The analysis of factors contributing to deviations of inflation from the target provides useful lessons for improving the inflation targeting strategy. For example, a less rigid forecasting system seems to be more beneficial than a forecasting system that is changed only very rarely.
Keywords: central bank of issue; central banks; Czech national bank; economic balance; economic research; inflation; centrální banka cedulová; ekonomická rovnováha; ekonomický výzkum; inflace
Rights: This work is protected under the Copyright Act No. 121/2000 Coll.

Institution: The Czech National Bank (web)
External URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/erb/index.html

Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-124086


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