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Technical Analysis
Regen, Ondřej ; Heliová, Martina (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
This master’s thesis deals with automated trading systems based on chosen trading strategies, their testing and inputs optimization. The work begins with a theoretical basis for subsequent practical part, where is the solution process illustrated. In conclusion, final evaluation of results is performed and recommendations for the future are mentioned.
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Technical Analysis of Selected Stocks
Novotná, Vendula ; Zerzánek, Ivan (referee) ; Sojka, Zdeněk (advisor)
This master’s thesis deals with the technical analysis of Starbucks Corporation, Vodafone Group, Apple and Autodesk stocks, which are tradeable at stock market NASDAQ. At the beginning, this work focuses on theoretical materials, which are then used for elaborating three trading systems and their testing on selected stocks. Conclusion of this thesis contains a selection of trading system for each stock on selected period of time.
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Technical Analysis
Kratochvíl, Bohumír ; Dřímal, Dominik (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
Master´s thesis goal that the author hopes to achieve is a design of an application aiding stock technical analysis based on identified needs. Based on analysis regarding modules for technical analysis of current trading platforms, I found out there is a certain space for improvement. Implemented trading rules and technical indicators of the application itself are further examined in terms of prognostic success rate on historical data. Selected chapters of technical analysis are fundamental base for this master´s thesis.
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Testing of Automated Trading Systems
Zapletal, Martin ; Vrábel, Lukáš (referee) ; Petřík, Patrik (advisor)
This thesis deals with testing of automated systems used for stock market trading. The reader acquires basic knowledge about financial markets and stock market. Subsequently, performance indicators for the whole trading system and for the prediction model used in the system are introduced. The explanation of influence of input data selection on trading system performance is the most crucial part of the paper. Selected trading system tests were done using the application, which was made as a part of this thesis. Results of these tests are also presented.
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Two-stage backtesting of Value-at-Risk models
Matyáš, Jan ; Seidler, Jakub (advisor) ; Brechler, Josef (referee)
Bachelor Thesis Two-stage backtesting of Value-at-Risk models Jan Matyáš Abstract This paper deals with a comparative evaluation of various Value-at-Risk models in terms of their prediction accuracy. We use two-stage backtesting procedure to find the most robust methodology in several aspects. Backtesting framework comprises of testing properties of independence, unconditional coverage, and conditional coverage and successive stage, that uses loss function allowing us to compare the two selected models from the previous part. Four European indices are taken to represent both well developed countries (DAX, ATX) and developing countries (PX, WIG). Models are examined over the period from January 1997 to February 2014. The best performing model in our selection appears to be the historical method with a 99% confidence interval. The use of stable distribution or lower confidence interval do not produce satisfactory results. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Backtesting of Different Scaling Rules for Value at Risk in the Basel Context
Klečka, Adam ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Avdulaj, Krenar (referee)
1 Abstract There is a discrepancy between two important horizon for Value at Risk modelling in the Basel context. We take 10-day values for determining the regulatory capital but we consider 1-day models for backtesting. The main objective of this thesis is to examine the suitability of the currently used Square Root of Time rule for Value at Risk scaling. We compare its performance with the method utilizing Hurst exponent. Our analysis is performed for both the normal and stable distribution. We conclude that the normality assumption and the Square Root of Time rule prevail under the regulatory parameters. The results of the Hurst exponent method are not favourable under normality. On the other hand, the performance for the stable distribution is quite satisfactory under non-Basel parameters and the Hurst exponent complements this distribution very well. Therefore, the use of stable distribution and the Hurst exponent method is justified when dealing with complex non-linear instruments, during turbulent periods, or for general non-Basel setting. In general however, our results are strongly data-dependent and further evidence is needed for any conclusive implications. JEL Classification G21, G28, C58, G32, C14, G18 Keywords value at risk, backtesting, volatility scaling, Basel II, stable distribution, Hurst...
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Optimization capital charges in VaR model utilizing dynamic risk management strategies
Kyjonková, Petra ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
Diploma thesis "Optimization capital charges in VaR model utilizing dynamic risk management strategies" deals with banks opportunity to reduce Basel capital requirements via estimation volatility in VaR model for separate time periods differently. It analyses current crisis, its sources, process, but especially its influence of new worldwide accepted regulatory standards, which require nearly doubled regulatory capital. Regarding high impact to industry return on equity the thesis discusses the possibility of dynamic capital optimization based on alternating conservative and aggressive risk management strategies. Empirical part of thesis tests outcomes of volatility modeling based on historical quotes of six European indexes since 2003, which are classified by volatility levels and broken down into several time periods. We suggest approach which enables financial institutions to reduce the impact of new Basel rules on their ROE, while they meet all VaR model conditions defined by the regulator. However, there are also negative consequences of this lowering level of capital represented by increasing failure rates of models. Although banks are able by suggested approach to achieve capital reduction by 20 percent, they are in the same time forced to use one of a very aggressive strategies. Dynamic...
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Testing of Automated Trading Systems
Zapletal, Martin ; Vrábel, Lukáš (referee) ; Petřík, Patrik (advisor)
This thesis deals with testing of automated systems used for stock market trading. The reader acquires basic knowledge about financial markets and stock market. Subsequently, performance indicators for the whole trading system and for the prediction model used in the system are introduced. The explanation of influence of input data selection on trading system performance is the most crucial part of the paper. Selected trading system tests were done using the application, which was made as a part of this thesis. Results of these tests are also presented.
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Technical Analysis
Kratochvíl, Bohumír ; Dřímal, Dominik (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
Master´s thesis goal that the author hopes to achieve is a design of an application aiding stock technical analysis based on identified needs. Based on analysis regarding modules for technical analysis of current trading platforms, I found out there is a certain space for improvement. Implemented trading rules and technical indicators of the application itself are further examined in terms of prognostic success rate on historical data. Selected chapters of technical analysis are fundamental base for this master´s thesis.
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Technical Analysis of Selected Stocks
Novotná, Vendula ; Zerzánek, Ivan (referee) ; Sojka, Zdeněk (advisor)
This master’s thesis deals with the technical analysis of Starbucks Corporation, Vodafone Group, Apple and Autodesk stocks, which are tradeable at stock market NASDAQ. At the beginning, this work focuses on theoretical materials, which are then used for elaborating three trading systems and their testing on selected stocks. Conclusion of this thesis contains a selection of trading system for each stock on selected period of time.
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