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Cointegration and EC model
Asipenka, Hanna ; Cipra, Tomáš (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
The thesis deals with the concept of cointegration of time series and related error correction model. First, we introduce the basic definitions and theorems that are necessary for understanding the subject of other chapters. Then we focus on the definition of cointegration and the issue of tests for cointegration. Next, we define the error correction model in general in the vector autoregression as well. We will show and prove Granger's representation theorem, which will allow the construction of the EC model in the next section of the chapter. Finally, we apply the written theory to real time series. We perform cointegration tests and construct the relevant EC model. 1
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Changes in development of fertility and birth rates depending on the economic conditions in the Czech Republic
Sudová, Petra ; Arltová, Markéta (advisor) ; Šimpach, Ondřej (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with the analysis of the birth rate and fertility rate in dependence on the economic conditions of the Czech Republic. The aim of this thesis is to analyze relations between selected socio-economic indicators and total fertility rate on the basis of available data and to evaluate changes related to birth and fertility in the Czech Republic, which occurred in the period 1993-2015. The thesis is divided into two main parts - theoretical and analytical. In the theoretical part are described the basic methods of calculating the characteristics for the analysis of the level of birthrate and fertility, as well as the development of selected socio-economic indicators. An important part of the first part of the diploma thesis is specification of used methods within time series. The second part is practically focused on cointegration analysis and subsequent assembly of single-row models from which error correction models were obtained by transformation. These can be used to describe short and long term relationships between time series. Explained variables are aggregate fertility in all assembled models, the explanatory variables are GDP, average gross monthly wage, final consumption expenditure for households, child allowances, parental allowance and household loans per capita.
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Analysis of the development of the prices of real estate
Hamouzová, Michaela ; Arltová, Markéta (advisor) ; Blatná, Dagmar (referee)
The aim of this diploma thesis is to analyze the development of the prices of real estate in the Czech Republic. The thesis is divided into three main parts. The first one deals with the theoretical introduction to valuation of the real estate. Moreover, the thesis presents the current development of the prices of real estate on the Czech market. The last part focuses on co-integration analysis, within which an ADL model is created. This model serves as a base for an error correction model, which describes short-term as well as long-term relations within the time series. The explanatory variables are gross domestic product, consumer price index, the amount of finished apartments, interest rate of mortgage loans, common rate of unemployment, and average gross monthly income. It is the one-equation model which describes the relation among the already mentioned explanatory variables and the HPI index. analysis of the development of the prices of real estate
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Simulation predictions of the Czech economy
Vejdělková, Dita ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis is composed of three main parts. The first part is theoretical and I deal here with economic relationships between macroeconomic magnitudes. Second part dedicated to the econometric theory of prognosis follows, in which I deal with different types of prognoses and prediction methods used at present. In the third, practical, part my intended aim is to create the best possible models of relations between fundamental macroeconomic magnitudes, using real Czech economy data, and to make simulation predictions of these magnitudes based on acquired models while utilising scenario analysis. First, I deal with choice of MSE and VAR models. Then follows the estimate of particular models and validation of prognostic capabilities of particular models for static and dynamic simulation. I conclude with elaboration of macroeconomic magnitudes prognosis while using scenario analysis.
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