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A CONCEPT AND METHODS OF ESTIMATION OF THE NAIRU AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE AT THE LABOR MARKET IN THE VISEGRAD COUNTRIES
Jašová, Emilie ; Kadeřábková, Božena (advisor) ; Čadil, Jan (referee) ; Galuščák, Kamil (referee)
This dissertation describes the relationship between inflation and unemployment with the concept of the natural rate of unemployment at which inflation remains unchanged. By comparing NAIRU, as defined in this manner, with the actual unemployment rate, we obtain the gap in unemployment. In connection with the analysed substitution between inflation and unemployment, there can be found a decrease in the importance of the PC in the 1970s, a very popular New Keynesian PC in the 1990s, and doubts over the robustness of the estimates. On the other hand, the concept of the PC and the NAIRU had previously been developed in accordance with the real data. There is a broad consensus on the impact of monetary policy on nominal variables (inflation) and real variables (unemployment). Methods are also being combined and continuously improved This dissertation is seeking to prove or disprove the hypothesis of the NAIRU concept's usability in estimating the economic cycle on the labor market. This hypothesis has helped in the acceptance of: the support for the concept and estimating PC and NAIRU in the literature; the application of measures to refine the estimate of the NAIRU and PC in the empirical analysis of the dissertation; the dissertation conclusion's compliance with the latest international research, with the local authors and with the own research. The contribution of the dissertation can be identified thusly: distribution methods depend upon the different time periods, their treatment and the best methods for the conditions of the countries in the Visegrad Group; the specification of an unstable environment and its impact upon the estimation of the NAIRU and the economic cycle; the calculation of the unemployment rate of the sectors, age categories and their use in estimating the NAIRU and cycle on the meso-level; to determine the effect of different pricing structure indicators in order to estimate the NAIRU and the economic cycle on the labor market and the topicality of their estimates.
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