Original title: Economic research bulletin (2012, No.1)
Name of part: Macroeconomic forecasting: methods, accuracy and coordination
Authors: Česká národní banka
Document type: Trade print
ISSN: 1803-7089
Year: 2012
Language: eng
Abstract: The first article performs an empirical investigation of the accuracy of Czech quarterly GDP forecasts of various models which extract information from the available monthly indicators. The forecast performance of the eight models is compared mutually and with the historical near-term forecasts of the CNB’s staff. The second article assesses the practical usability of Bayesian fan charts for the purposes of CNB forecast evaluation and financial stability stress testing. The third article evaluates the accuracy of Consensus Economics forecasts by comparison with the alternative forecasts including those of international organisations. Furthermore, the impact of the recent crisis on forecast performance is investigated. The last article analyses the extent to which private analysts coordinate their forecasts with those produced by the Czech National Bank, and whether such coordination changes over time.
Keywords: central bank of issue; central banks; Czech national bank; economic research; gross domestic product; macroeconomics; macroeconomy; centrální banka cedulová; ekonomický výzkum; hrubý domácí produkt; makroekonomie
Rights: This work is protected under the Copyright Act No. 121/2000 Coll.

Institution: The Czech National Bank (web)
External URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/erb/index.html

Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-124092


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Trade literature > Trade print