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Original title:
Economic research bulletin (2008, No.1)
Authors: Česká národní banka
Document type: Trade print
ISSN: 1803-7089
Year: 2006
Language: eng
Abstract: The CNB has been targeting inflation for ten years now. We have decided to take this opportunity to present recent CNB research related to the inflation targeting strategy. The first two articles contribute to the discussion about how the inflation targeting strategy should be evaluated. They both point out that it is not enough simply to count how many times inflation was on target. One alternative way of measuring the success of the strategy is suggested in the first article. Partial simulations with the forecast model can help us understand the reasons for deviations of inflation from the target. Another alternative is proposed in the second article, which emphasises that success is conditional on transparent and consistent communication of inflation factors. The next two articles focus on one of the most prominent features of the inflation process – persistence – and its implications for the inflation targeting strategy. They both find that inflation persistence may be lower in the Czech case than one might expect. The third article – based on microeconomic data – provides evidence that inflation persistence has declined during the ten years of inflation targeting. The fourth article – based on macroeconomic data – estimates the level of the inflation target perceived by the public and illustrates that the strategy has gained credibility and has managed to stabilise perceived inflation at low levels.
Keywords: Czech national bank; economic research; European union; European Union; inflation; time series analysis; analýza časové řady; ekonomický výzkum; Evropská unie; inflace
Rights: This work is protected under the Copyright Act No. 121/2000 Coll.
Institution: The Czech National Bank (web)
External URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/erb/index.html
Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-124084
The record appears in these collections:
Miscellaneous > The Czech National Bank
Trade literature > Trade print
Authors: Česká národní banka
Document type: Trade print
ISSN: 1803-7089
Year: 2006
Language: eng
Abstract: The CNB has been targeting inflation for ten years now. We have decided to take this opportunity to present recent CNB research related to the inflation targeting strategy. The first two articles contribute to the discussion about how the inflation targeting strategy should be evaluated. They both point out that it is not enough simply to count how many times inflation was on target. One alternative way of measuring the success of the strategy is suggested in the first article. Partial simulations with the forecast model can help us understand the reasons for deviations of inflation from the target. Another alternative is proposed in the second article, which emphasises that success is conditional on transparent and consistent communication of inflation factors. The next two articles focus on one of the most prominent features of the inflation process – persistence – and its implications for the inflation targeting strategy. They both find that inflation persistence may be lower in the Czech case than one might expect. The third article – based on microeconomic data – provides evidence that inflation persistence has declined during the ten years of inflation targeting. The fourth article – based on macroeconomic data – estimates the level of the inflation target perceived by the public and illustrates that the strategy has gained credibility and has managed to stabilise perceived inflation at low levels.
Keywords: Czech national bank; economic research; European union; European Union; inflation; time series analysis; analýza časové řady; ekonomický výzkum; Evropská unie; inflace
Rights: This work is protected under the Copyright Act No. 121/2000 Coll.
Institution: The Czech National Bank (web)
External URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/erb/index.html
Permalink: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-124084
The record appears in these collections:
Miscellaneous > The Czech National Bank
Trade literature > Trade print
Record created 2012-09-19, last modified 2024-07-16
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