National Repository of Grey Literature 5 records found  Search took 0.00 seconds. 
A Macroeconomic Forecasting Model of the fixed exchange rate regime for the oil-rich Kazakh economy
Hlédik, Tibor ; Musil, Karel ; Ryšánek, Jakub ; Tonner, Jaromír
This paper presents a semi-structural quarterly projection open-economy model for analyzing monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic developments in Kazakhstan during the period of the fixed exchange rate regime. The model captures key stylized facts of the Kazakh economy, especially the important role of oil prices in influencing the economic cycle in Kazakhstan. The application of the model to observed data provides a reasonable interpretation of Kazakh economic history, including the global crisis, through to late 2015, when the National Bank of Kazakhstan introduced a managed float. The dynamic properties of the model are analyzed using impulse response functions for selected country-specific shocks. The model’s shock decomposition and in-sample forecasting properties presented in the paper suggest that the model was an applicable tool for monetary policy analysis and practical forecasting at the National Bank of Kazakhstan. In a general sense, the model can be considered an example of a quarterly projection model for oil-rich countries with a fixed exchange rate.
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International Trade Network
Hanousek, Milan ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Parrák, Radovan (referee)
This paper studies the topological properties of the International Trade Network (ITN) among world countries using a network analysis. We explore the distribu- tions of the most important network statistics measuring connectivity, assortativ- ity and clustering. We show that the topological properties of the weighted rep- resentation of the ITN are very different from those obtained by a binary network approach. In particular, we find that: (i) the majority of countries are character- ized by weak trade relationships, (ii) well connected countries tend to trade with poorly connected partners and (iii) countries holding more intense trade relation- ships are more clustered. Finally, we display that all structural properties of the ITN have remained remarkably stable over time.
Dissection of Bornholdt's model: examination of inner dynamics and effect of parameter change
Chrz, Štěpán ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
Dissection of Bornholdt's model - Analysis of Inner Dynamics and Effect of Parameter Change Mgr. Štěpán Chrz Abstract In this work we thoroughly analyze Bornholdt's version of Ising model of ferro- magnetism, with emphasis on its ability to mimic some basic stylized facts of financial series. Initially, we provide a breakdown of model definition and anal- ysis of underlying dynamics. Subsequently, we examine and confirm model's ability to mimic stylized facts of financial series. To examine robustness of this ability to parameter change, we conduct simulations over a set of parameter combinations. We conclude that there is a wide set of combinations that yields acceptable simulation results. We also note that the seemingly best results are obtained at parameter values close to border of this set. 1
Ising model in finance: from microscopic rules to macroscopic phenomena
Dvořák, Pavel ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Kukačka, Jiří (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to inspect the abilities of the Ising model to exhibit selected statistical properties, or stylized facts, that are common to a wide range of financial assets. The investigated properties are heteroskedasticity of returns, rapidly decaying linear autocorrelation, volatility clustering, heavy tails, negative skewness and non-Gaussianity of the return distribution. In the first part of the thesis, we test the presence of these stylized facts in S&P 500 daily returns over the last 30 years. The main part of the thesis is dedicated to the Ising model-based simulations and to discussion of the results. New features such as Poisson process governed lag or magnetisation dependent trading activity are incorporated in the model. We conclude that the Ising model is able to convincingly replicate most of the examined statistical properties while even more satisfactory results can be obtained with appropriate tuning. 1
Use of Agent-Based Models in Investigation of Behavioral Finance Phenomena
Motloch, Pavel ; Havlíček, David (advisor) ; Matejašák, Milan (referee)
This Bachelor thesis joins two areas which currently attracted increased attention --- Behavioral Finance theory and agent based models. Goal of this work was to overcome deficiencies of known agent based models and to create a model focusing on decision-making of individual agents, optimally using findings of Behavioral finance. We managed to find such a model and proved that it is capable of reproducing basic statistical properties of market prices, which is a basic test of the quality of the model. Its further use in investigation of Behavioral phenomena is currently impossible, because we are not able to sufficiently constraint the space of parameters. At the end of the thesis we discuss how it would be possible to overcome this obstacle.

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