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A Macroeconomic Forecasting Model of the fixed exchange rate regime for the oil-rich Kazakh economy
Hlédik, Tibor ; Musil, Karel ; Ryšánek, Jakub ; Tonner, Jaromír
This paper presents a semi-structural quarterly projection open-economy model for analyzing monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic developments in Kazakhstan during the period of the fixed exchange rate regime. The model captures key stylized facts of the Kazakh economy, especially the important role of oil prices in influencing the economic cycle in Kazakhstan. The application of the model to observed data provides a reasonable interpretation of Kazakh economic history, including the global crisis, through to late 2015, when the National Bank of Kazakhstan introduced a managed float. The dynamic properties of the model are analyzed using impulse response functions for selected country-specific shocks. The model’s shock decomposition and in-sample forecasting properties presented in the paper suggest that the model was an applicable tool for monetary policy analysis and practical forecasting at the National Bank of Kazakhstan. In a general sense, the model can be considered an example of a quarterly projection model for oil-rich countries with a fixed exchange rate.
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Presidential Clans in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan: status and development
Jordanová, Anna ; Horák, Slavomír (advisor) ; Šír, Jan (referee)
The thesis deals with the topic of the development of presidential political clans in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. It covers the entire rule of the first two presidents (Nursultan Nazarbayev and Islam Karimov) from their ascension to their posts shortly after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and declarations of independence of both states, and also the current rule of their respective successors (Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Shavkat Mirziyoyev). It predominantly focuses on the power and social status of their closest relatives in these clan- based structures. Special attention was paid to their potential roles in state affairs after the resignation (or death) of their patrons.
The Outbound Mobility of Higher Education Students from Kazakhstan
Otemurat, Arailym ; Kohoutek, Jan (advisor) ; Smidová, Michaela (referee)
As many other young and developing countries, Kazakhstan is also trying to implement various educational reforms to get stabilized and improve its education system after the collapse of the USSR. Respectively, the country carried out certain reforms and internationalization projects in higher education system to move and keep pace with today's globalized and internationalized times. However, an insufficient number of researches have been carried through to investigate and analyze the follow - ups of the internationalization process and its consequent outbound mobility specifics. This particular research paper explores the higher education internationalization projects implemented by Kazakhstan, and their subsequent dynamics, figures, funding, and many other detailed data. Moreover, it investigates both explicit and implicit factors impacting the outbound mobility of Kazakhstani higher education students on the basis of both qualitative and quantative methods, giving certain recommendations how to tackle the obstacles successfully. Keywords: education, higher education, internationalization, outbound mobility of students Annotace Stejně jako množství jiných mladých a rozvojových zemí se Kazachstán taký snaží provést různé vzdělávací reformy, aby mohl stabilizovat a zlepšit svůj vzdělávací systém po...
Estimation of illegal drug consumption in Kazakhstan
Ayapbekova, Dinara ; Vopravil, Jiří (advisor) ; Radimecký, Josef (referee)
Background: The republic of Kazakhstan is located on the "Northern Route" by which opiates are smuggled from Afghanistan to the Russian Federation and further into the European Union. For this reason, the state is under constant high risk of the drugs leaking to the local market, leading to drug abuse and related issues within the population. The drug situation in Kazakhstan is further complicated by the internal factor of the Chuy Valley which features the largest area of wild- growing cannabis in the world. The aim of this thesis is to estimate the consumption of cannabis-derived drugs and heroin in Kazakhstan based on the latest national and international reports and research. In terms of research, the thesis examines which organisations collect statistical information on users of illegal drugs and what methods are used to do so. Methods: the data analysis consisted of a secondary analysis of existing collected data through quantitative descriptive statistics and a qualitative analysis of individual international and national reports. Drug consumption was estimated based on demand. Results: According to estimates, there were 127,800 problem drug users in Kazakhstan in 2014; the total volume of consumed heroin was estimated to more than 46 tonnes. The estimated consumption of cannabis drugs in...
Different challenger , different response? Comparative analysis of Russia's reaction to outside influence in Kazakhstan and Ukraine
Vasilieva, Vladyslava ; Karásek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Střítecký, Vít (referee)
This diploma thesis is focused on the analysis of Russian foreign policy towards Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The actions of the external players, namely the US (NATO), the EU and China are discussed in order to see how these foreign entities can modify Russia's actions in its backyard. The current state of affairs demands a careful examination of Russian foreign policies. As Russia has demonstrated in Georgia, Ukraine, Syria, it is willing to protect its interests at any cost. Thus, it was decided to analyze whether the foreign involvement in Kazakhstan would provoke Russian aggression. The primary aim is to provide a complex examination of Russian involvement in Kazakhstan and Ukraine along with the increasing influence from external players. This thesis is expected to contribute to the existing research on Russian foreign policy by providing an essential background for future researches as well as by presenting previously incomparable cases. This work presents a significant historical background that provides a reader with the in- depth analysis of Russia's relations with Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Geopolitical, military, economic, social factors are analyzed to present a broader perspective of the regional interconnections. Thus, this work analyzes how Russia has established its dominance in the...
Central Asian Foreign Fighters in Syria
Nováková, Sabina ; Bureš, Oldřich (advisor) ; Záhora, Jakub (referee)
This thesis deals with the phenomenon of Central Asian foreign fighters in Syria, 2011- 2017. It analyzes their radicalization, recruitment, and travel patterns. Special emphasis is placed on tracking the home states' responses, including elements of de-radicalization and counter-radicalization. The thesis has found that there is arguably no single factor explaining the Central Asian fighters' radicalization; nor is there a typical profile of a Central Asian fighter. Available data suggest that radicalization and extremist recruitment most often occur in Russia. Furthermore, the analysis of travel patterns has shown that the majority of Central Asian fighters traveled to Syria either indirectly via multiple countries (again, most often Russia) or directly from their country of origin, and then crossed the border from Turkey. The thesis concludes that all five Central Asian states have adopted policies to address the perceived security threat of returning foreign fighters, whereas the hard, restrictive and punitive approach has been prevalent all across the region.
Kazakhstan - a Country of Contrasts
FURSOVA, Nadezhda
Number of pages 51 introduction, two chapters, conclusion, bibliography The aim of the thesis is to show Kazakhstan as a country of contrasts. The first chapter gives a brief historical overview of the formation of the Kazak Khanate to the present day; it presents the analysis of the problems of the multinational state in the contemporary world. The second chapter covers the position of Kazakhstan in the international community, the issues of foreign policy and international relations of Kazakhstan, especially, the relations with the Czech Republic; it performs a comparative analysis of the new economic policy of Kazakhstan. The work is written in Russian.
Analysis of the influence of "cursed natural resources" on the economic and political development of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan after the disintegration of the Soviet Union
Hejzdral, Miroslav ; Jelen, Libor (advisor) ; Horák, Slavomír (referee)
The master thesis deal with relation between socioeconomic and political development in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and their dependence on extraction of oil, respectively on gold. These raw materials are thought to be their major export products. The aim is to determine the impact of raw material extraction on the macroeconomic development of the countries and the widening of their regional differences and to try to explain the declining or stagnant level of democracy in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan by means of the theoretical concept of resource curse. Methodologically, the thesis is done on the basis of statistical analysis of economic indicators such as GDP, HDI, foreign investment, remittances and world prices of raw materials. For a better understanding of regional differences, simple statistical methods such as index of change and the Gini coefficient were used. The work also analyzed the political development using indicators from Freedom House, Human Freedom and The Economist Intelligence Unit that measure the level of democracy and freedom. Interpretation of results is based on previous research of specialized literature and other media sources specializing on selected area. As a result, the very close linkage between macroeconomic development and...
Folk healing, ritual and magic of Czechs resettled from Ukraine and Kazakhstan
Beranská, Veronika
The paper deals with the two closely interrelated thematic areas of human activity and thought, such as practical effort to recover health in the form of healing practices and the belief in the spiritual transcendence) beyond the individual actions in everyday life. The text is clearly divided into subcategories in accordance with the various aspects of folk healing and their adaptability to environmental change. The article is based on recollections and memories of Czechs resettled from the former Soviet Union and the knowledge of themed literature.
The folk healing in memoirs and living presence of resettled compatriots from the former Soviet Union
Beranská, Veronika ; Uherek, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Štěpánová, Irena (referee) ; Moravcová, Mirjam (referee)
The work builds on the scientific production on the theme of the resettled Czechs from areas of the former Soviet Union, which is continued treated on the soil of the Institute of Ethnology of the CAS, v.v.i., and introduces the latest conducted grant project, in which I focused on the area of health and folk medicine. The text deals with a specific group of the Czech populations predominantly from Ukraine and Kazakhstan (partially also Belarus and Russia), whose ancestors set out in the second half of the 19th century to seek a better living in the direction to the east from the borders of then Austro-Hungary. Through the use of commemorative narrations and life trajectories of the participating actors, the work maps the background of the arrival in new destinations, life in the 20th century, the change of the political and social conditions and the subsequent remigration to the Czech Republic. With a few exceptions, all of the actors figuring in this work became part of the resettlement processes - in the case of the Volyn Czechs after World War II in 1947 within the controlled exchange of the populations and in the case of the Chernobyl Czechs (and partially also some of the Czechs from Belarus and Russia) in the 1990s within the state-controlled resettlement after the accident at the Chernobyl...

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