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Modeling and simulation of investment project risk
 Pospíšilová, Barbora ; Heralová,, Renáta Schneiderová - (referee) ; Hromádka, Vít (referee) ; Tomanová, Štěpánka (referee) ; Korytárová, Jana (advisor)
This doctoral thesis deals with modelling and simulation of investment projects and linking risk management with new trends in construction industry. Process of balancing of acceptable risk level and investment costs is really complex and is influenced by several uncertainties. Simulation methods are able to model future scenarios of project development and quantify impact of risk factors. The aim of the doctoral thesis is to find an optimal methodology for risk analysis during decision-making process using simulation methods. The methodology links modeling by simulation method Monte Carlo with CBA, with risk analysis respectively. The aim is to reach more effective process of planning of investment projects. An accurate project plan in preinvestment phase will influence effectiveness of life cycle costs significantly. This is proved also by BIM methodology which works on base of transfer and storage of actual and complete information about investment plan within its whole lifecycle. Expected output of the thesis is effective application of simulation methods in risk prediction for modeling of outputs of investment project. Data from model are useful for decision making process, risk management, controlling and postaudit of investments. Projects can be evaluated by their complex benefits and quality with respect to sustainability.
Detailed record
Modeling and simulation of investment project risk
 Pospíšilová, Barbora ; Heralová,, Renáta Schneiderová - (referee) ; Hromádka, Vít (referee) ; Tomanová, Štěpánka (referee) ; Korytárová, Jana (advisor)
This doctoral thesis deals with modelling and simulation of investment projects and linking risk management with new trends in construction industry. Process of balancing of acceptable risk level and investment costs is really complex and is influenced by several uncertainties. Simulation methods are able to model future scenarios of project development and quantify impact of risk factors. The aim of the doctoral thesis is to find an optimal methodology for risk analysis during decision-making process using simulation methods. The methodology links modeling by simulation method Monte Carlo with CBA, with risk analysis respectively. The aim is to reach more effective process of planning of investment projects. An accurate project plan in preinvestment phase will influence effectiveness of life cycle costs significantly. This is proved also by BIM methodology which works on base of transfer and storage of actual and complete information about investment plan within its whole lifecycle. Expected output of the thesis is effective application of simulation methods in risk prediction for modeling of outputs of investment project. Data from model are useful for decision making process, risk management, controlling and postaudit of investments. Projects can be evaluated by their complex benefits and quality with respect to sustainability.
Detailed record

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