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Global Economy Outlook - January 2015
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová a statistiky ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The November issue of Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. Analysis "The effect of oil prices on inflation from a GVAR model perspective" deals with the effect of oil prices on inflation from a GVAR (global vector autoregression) model perspective. This model framework shows that a fall in oil prices leads to an increase in anti-inflationary pressures, especially in the short run. If a country reaches the zero lower bound on monetary policy interest rates, a fall in oil prices can be expected to have a much greater impact on inflation according to this model.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
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Global Economy Outlook - December 2014
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová a statistiky ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The November issue of Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. Analysis "Applicability of Okun’s law to OECD countries and other economies" examines the validity of Okun's law, which empirically assesses the strength of the relationship between growth in unemployment and GDP. Using a sample of 59 countries, our analysis shows a significant asymmetry in the evolution of Okun's coefficient since the end of the 1990s.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Global Economy Outlook - October 2014
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová a statistiky ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The October issue of Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also analyse the changes in FDI inflows and FDI returns in the Czech Republic and Central European countries. FDI returns have been much higher (especially since 2008) in the Czech Republic than in the other Central European countries. This is due to the structure of FDI, the absence of additional tax measures reducing FDI earnings and to differences in the scale and sectoral effects of the economic and financial crisis.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Global Economy Outlook - September 2014
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová a statistiky ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The September issue of Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also analyse the competitiveness and dynamics of goods exports from Central European EU member states. We find, among other things, that the current dependence of Central and South-Eastern European countries on global demand is higher than in the final pre-crisis years.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Global Economy Outlook - August 2014
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová a statistiky ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exch ange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on the evolution and structure of part - time employment. We present a European comparison of the use of part - time employment. It reveals, among other things, that in the crisis period of 2008 – 201 3, part - time employment was most frequently used in countries with high unemployment growth and in demographic groups most at risk of redundancy. This helped to lessen – at least partly – the impacts of the economic crisis on the labour market.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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