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Analysis of deflationary factors in the Czech Republic in years 2008-2016. Was the CNB's decision to start intervene on foreign exchange markets well-founded?
Krampera, Tomáš ; Ševčíková, Michaela (advisor) ; Munzi, Tomáš (referee)
The decision of the Czech National Bank to initiate interventions on foreign exchange markets on 7th November 2013 based on an alleged threat of deflation induced a significant professional debate about the legitimacy of such a step as well as the phenomenon of deflation itself. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the development of Czech economy before and after the interventions using a macroeconomic and econometric analysis. That includes identifying potential deflationary factors, which are then put into context of good and bad deflation characteristics. Further analysis is to determine whether foreign exchange interventions were a justified step. This bachelor paper also mentions the characterization of different viewpoints on deflation, the evolution of opinions from a historical perspective and the description of low-inflation development abroad. The final part of this paper identified low inflation in Eurozone and the prices of oil as the main deflationary factors, both of which matching good and bad deflation characterization. I find CNBs foreign exchange interventions as an unfounded step.

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