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Geographical Random Forest model evaluation in agricultural drought assessment
 Bicák, Daniel ; Brodský, Lukáš (advisor) ; Brůha, Lukáš (referee)
Drought is a natural disaster, which negatively affects millions of people and causes huge economic losses. This thesis investigates agricultural drought in Czechia using machine learning algorithms. The statistical models utilised were Random Forest (RF), Geographical Random Forest (GRF) and Locally Tuned Geographical Random Forest (LT GRF). GRF consists of several RF models trained on a subset of original data. The final prediction is a weighted sum of the prediction of a local and global model. The size of the subset is determined by the tunable parameter. LT GRF addresses spatial variability of subset size and local weight. During the tuning process, optimal parameters are found for every location and then interpolated for unknown regions. The thesis aims to evaluate the performance of each model and compare GRF feature importance output with the global model. The best model features meteorological impor- tances are used to create a drought vulnerability map of Czechia. Produced assessment is compared to existing drought vulnerability projects. 1
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