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Bayesiánské techniky analýzy ekonomických časových řad
Vaněk, Tomáš
This diploma thesis deals with bayesian techniques of economic time series analysis and contains two parts. In the first part the monetary transmission mechanisms of the Czech Republic, Germany and Cyprus are analysed using the bayesian vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. The second part evaluates the predictive performance of bayesian vector autoregressive models with different priors when predicting selected macroeconomic variables of the above-mentioned countries. In the second part combinations of predictions and their evaluation are also conducted.
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Vplyv sentimentu správ na obchodovanie inštitucionálnych investorov na Forexe
Holá, Silvia
The bachelor thesis examines the impact of the irrational factor, the sentiment of economic and financial announcements, on exchange rates traded on the forex market. The framework of the paper is based on the theory of behavioral economics, drawing attention to the psychological aspects that explain the behavioral anomalies of investors. The analysis refers to the EUR/USD currency pair that institutional investors trade most often. The results of the paper indicate the economic inconsistency of sentiment, which points to the inappropriateness of including this irrational factor in investment decision.
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Phillips curve verification by time series analysis of Czech republic and Germany
Král, Ondřej ; Arltová, Markéta (advisor) ; Blatná, Dagmar (referee)
Government fiscal and monetary policy has long been based on the theory that was neither proven nor refuted since its origination. The original form of the Phillips curve has undergone significant modifications but its relevance remains questionable. This thesis examines the correlation between inflation and unemployment observed in the Czech Republic and Germany over the last twenty years. The validity of the theory is tested by advanced methods of time series analysis in the R environment. All the variables are gradually tested which results in the assessment of the correlation between the time series. The outcome of the testing is presented for both countries and a comparison at international level is drawn. Is is discovered that both of the countries have dependencies in their data. Czech republic has significant dependency in both ways, for Germany is the dependency significantly weaker and only in one way.
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Bayesiánské techniky analýzy ekonomických časových řad
Vaněk, Tomáš
This diploma thesis deals with bayesian techniques of economic time series analysis and contains two parts. In the first part the monetary transmission mechanisms of the Czech Republic, Germany and Cyprus are analysed using the bayesian vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. The second part evaluates the predictive performance of bayesian vector autoregressive models with different priors when predicting selected macroeconomic variables of the above-mentioned countries. In the second part combinations of predictions and their evaluation are also conducted.
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