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Framework for event modeling a prediction in football.
Geffert, Maroš ; Beneš, Karel (referee) ; Szőke, Igor (advisor)
This thesis investigates current methods of predicting football events such as the number of goals in a match, the outcome of a match, or whether both teams will score. The models analyzed were neural network, RandomForest and XGBoost. Extensive historical data on matches and players were collected as part of the work. The main objectives were to determine whether detailed statistics significantly affect prediction, to evaluate the effectiveness of using betting odds as features, to investigate the impact of historical data on the quality of predictions, and to determine whether success can be achieved in the betting market with such models. The results showed that detailed statistics improve the accuracy of the predictions, but the use of odds as features generally degrades the predictions. The results regarding the use of historical data for predictions were inconclusive. RandomForest and neural network models achieved promising results with ROI of 32.38% and 29.04%, respectively.
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