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Macroeconomic Responses of Emerging Market Economies to Oil Price Shocks: Analysis by Region and Resource Profile
Togonidze, S. ; Kočenda, Evžen
This study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse how oil price shocks affect macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Findings from existing literature remain inconclusive how macroeconomic variables fare towards shocks, especially in emerging economies. The objective of our study is to uncover if analysis by region (Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and Central Asia) and resource intensity of economies (oil exporters, oil importers, minerals exporters, and less resource intensive). Our unique approach forms part of our contribution to the literature. We find that Latin America and the Caribbean are least affected by oil price shocks, while in East Asia and the Pacific the response of inflation and interest rate to oil price shocks is positive, and output growth is negative. Our analysis by resource endowment fails to show oil price shocks’ ability to explain huge variations in macroeconomic variables in oil importing economies. Further sensitivity analysis using US interest rates as an alternative source of external shocks to emerging economies establishes a significant response of interest rate responses to US interest rate in Europe and Central Asia, and in inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that regardless of resource endowment, the response of output growth and capital to a positive US interest rate shock is negative and significant in EMs. Our results are persuasive that resource intensity and regional factors impact the responsiveness of emerging economies to oil price shocks, thus laying a basis for policy debate.\n
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A Panel Data Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa's Economic Growth
Hostačný, Jakub ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Bobková, Božena (referee)
This thesis examines the relationship between real GDP per capita growth rate of Sub-Saharan Africa countries and various variables suggested by theoretical literature related to Solow model or endogenous growth theories. The set of most commonly used variables is further extended by additional variables which have not been given an ample attention in the context of analysis of SSA countries' economic growth so far. The econometric analysis uses unbalanced panel data set comprising annual observations on 45 SSA countries between 1980 and 2011 applying a simple pooled OLS and FE estimation. We also touch IV estimation to address endogeneity problem. Moreover, we test the sensitivity of parameter estimates. Along with the analysis of total set of SSA countries, we subgroup countries into 4 groups - oil exporters, middle-income countries, non-fragile low-income countries and fragile countries. We present results for each group. The results support the findings of earlier empirical studies related to most commonly variables associated with economic growth, except the negative effect of population growth rate and conditional convergence hypothesis. The analysis of additional factors reveals the strong relevance of latitude, colonial heritage and landlockedness, while no systematic effect of neither...
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A Panel Data Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa's Economic Growth
Hostačný, Jakub ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Bobková, Božena (referee)
This thesis examines the relationship between real GDP per capita growth rate of Sub-Saharan Africa countries and various variables suggested by theoretical literature related to Solow model or endogenous growth theories. The set of most commonly used variables is further extended by additional variables which have not been given an ample attention in the context of analysis of SSA countries' economic growth so far. The econometric analysis uses unbalanced panel data set comprising annual observations on 45 SSA countries between 1980 and 2011 applying a simple pooled OLS and FE estimation. We also touch IV estimation to address endogeneity problem. Moreover, we test the sensitivity of parameter estimates. Along with the analysis of total set of SSA countries, we subgroup countries into 4 groups - oil exporters, middle-income countries, non-fragile low-income countries and fragile countries. We present results for each group. The results support the findings of earlier empirical studies related to most commonly variables associated with economic growth, except the negative effect of population growth rate and conditional convergence hypothesis. The analysis of additional factors reveals the strong relevance of latitude, colonial heritage and landlockedness, while no systematic effect of neither...
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