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Reflection of the Czechoslovak Monetary Policy in the thoughts and writings of German-speaking Economist that worked at the Charles-Ferdinand University during 1918 - 1938
Zatřepálková, Hana ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Doležalová, Antonie (referee)
The thesis focuses on German-speaking economists, specifically Oskar Engländer, Alfred Amonn, and Hugo Müller, who taught economically oriented subjects at the German University in Prague during the interwar period. Through a combination of historical research and textual analysis of their works, the thesis explores the extent to which these economists expressed interest in the monetary policy of Czechoslovakia and its notable figures, Alois Rašín and Karel Engliš. Additionally, it investigates the predominant themes in their works during this period and provides insights into the potential applications of computer-based textual analysis in the field of the history of economic thought.
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Vplyv nekonvenčnej menovej politiky na devízové kurzy
Gáťová, Jana
Gáťová, J. The impact of unconventional monetary policy on exchange rate. Diplo-ma thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2023 The diploma thesis deals with the impact of unconventional monetary policy on the exchange rate. The literary review deals with the instruments of unconven-tional monetary policy and their specific use by the central banks ECB and FED. The aim of the thesis was to identify the impact of unconventional monetary poli-cy, primarily quantitative easing, on the USD/EUR exchange rate. In the empirical part of the diploma thesis, an analysis was carried out that examined this relation-ship using graphs and a VAR model, from which Granger causality and Impulse-response analysis were subsequently derived. Based on the analysis, the relation-ship between the quantitative easing of the central banks of the ECB, the FED and the movement of the USD/EUR exchange rate was proven.
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Komunikace jako nástroj monetární politiky ČNB
Avramov, Dominik
Avramov, D. Communication as a tool for monetary policy of ČNB. Bachelor thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2023. Central bank communication is a hot topic because, in a world where in-formation travels at the speed of light, it is in the interest of central banks that their monetary policy is properly understood and does not spread uncertainty. The thesis will focus on the period 2016-2020, during which the Fed, BoE and ČNB changed their key rates in an attempt to tighten monetary policy. The text summarises the current understanding of central bank communication and then analyses three central banks to use the comparison to improve the ČNB's current communication strategy.
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The impact of monetary policy and the housing market in the Czech republic
Šuslik, David
I analyse impacts of monetary policy on housing prices and real household credit in the Czech Republic using structural VAR model identified by Cholesky decomposition. I focus on the period after the financial crisis from 2008, through the period of near zero interest rates from 2014 to 2017 until the end of 2022. I dedicate a chapter to major policy decisions of Czech National Bank in relation to housing market and household credit. My empirical strategy closely follows Bjørnland and Jacobsen, (2010). I identify six economic variables, namely exchange rate, GDP, inflation, interest rate, household credit and house price index. Subsequently I calculate their impact on housing prices and household credit in the Czech Republic. My estimations confirm findings of Robstad, (2018) that house prices respond stronger to monetary policy shocks in comparison with household credit. Yet, another finding is that household credit does not respond to interest rate shock while real house prices exhibit positive response. However, magnitude of this effect is relatively small in comparison with shocks from remaining variables.
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The correlation between the automotive industry output cycle and the business cycle in the Czech Republic
Yin, Shiqi ; Jeřábek, Petr (advisor) ; Merrino, Serena (referee) ; Čech, František (referee)
This paper aims to investigate the correlation between the output cycle and the business cycle of the Czech Republic's core industry, the automotive industry. The paper begins by analysing the volatility of each variable, and finds that the trends of the automotive industry output cycle and the business cycle align, while the automotive industry output cycle keeps lagging behind the business cycle. Secondly, this paper adopts the VAR model to examine the relationship between the Czech automotive output and its macroeconomic indicators, using the real GDP and the Gross Value added (GVA) to represent the macroeconomic situation. The results show that there is a correlation between Czech automotive industry output and the macroeconomy, but the correlation is asymmetric, which means the automotive industry is more sensitive to macroeconomic shocks but has weaker impact on the macroeconomy. Finally, this paper also measures the correlation between the automotive industry and monetary policy (M2) and finds that the monetary policy shows strong stability and independence, which can affect the progress of the automotive industry, but no reverse effect has been observed.
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The impact of Monetary Policy on the Economic Growth of the Czech Republic
Khalilova, Solmaz ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
This study deals with the impact of monetary policy on the economic growth of the Czech Republic. The subject of this thesis is the examination of monetary policy of the Czech Republic in the period 2001-2022. The main focus of the thesis is based on investigating the potential impact of monetary policy on the economic growth in this country. Quarterly data for the Czech Republic economy for the 2001Q1-2022Q3 period was used in the study. Whether the monetary policy is effective in the Czech Republic has been examined using VAR analysis. According to the results obtained, the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments in the Czech Republic varies periodically. According to the findings, an increase in real GDP was observed after COVID-19. This indicates that monetary policy instruments generally have a positive effect on the economic growth of the country. JEL Classification: Keywords: Title : E31, E42, E50, E52, E58 Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Czech Republic The Impact of Monetary Policy on The Economic Growth of the Czech Republic
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Bitcoin and the world-systems theory: the case of El Salvador
Černý, Ondřej ; Hornát, Jan (advisor) ; Fiřtová, Magdalena (referee)
This bachelor's thesis revolves around the acceptance of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador and the subsequent reactions from the international community, particularly the United States and the International Monetary Fund. Using the case of El Salvador as a study, the thesis seeks to explore a broader phenomenon concerning Latin America and the potential for Bitcoin to be the key for positive socio-economic transformation in the region. The theoretical part of the thesis delves into the concepts of dollarization and the governance of Bitcoin, in addition to the world-systems theory proposed by Immanuel Wallerstein. Subsequently, the thesis applies these theories to concrete facts and conducts an analysis. The timeframe for this research spans from September 2021, when Bitcoin was officially adopted as legal tender in El Salvador, until the end of 2022.
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Macroeconomic consequences of Covid-19 and the role of stabilisation policies
Karhánek, Tomáš ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The thesis applies panel data analyses supported by vast stream of empirical literature with aim to capture and quantify effects of the monetary and fiscal stabilization policies on the macroeconomic indicators during COVID-19 pandemic, while also comparing effects of UMP and CMP monetary regimes. The results show that both the monetary and fiscal stabilization policies had positive and statistically significant impact on the real GDP growth. On the other hand, the effect of the stabilization policies did not have significant effect on the inflation during 2020-2021. The thesis also presents a small subsample of forecasting utilizing properties of VECM and comparing recovery paths of 3 European countries with different monetary regimes. We also conclude that there is no significant difference between monetary regimes utilizing UMP or CMP in terms of effectivity of the GDP growth stimulus and recovery paths of the macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, we have concluded that the GDP sectoral composition played an important role in the economic impact on the country as countries with larger share of services suffered larger decrease of the real GDP and countries with large industrial sector faced higher inflation due to supply chain disturbtion. JEL Classification E52, E31, E470, H51, H68, H61...
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Origin of Current High Inflation in the Czech Economy (2022)
Dvořáková, Natálie ; Šestořád, Tomáš (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis presents new evidence on the relative importance of seven domestic and foreign inflation drivers in the Czech Republic over the past two decades. A structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with short-run zero and sign restrictions is estimated within a Bayesian framework, enabling the decomposi- tion of the sources of inflation. A comparative forecast error variance decompo- sition (FEVD) analysis is performed among three baseline models to investigate the underlying causes of the recent surge in inflation in the Czech economy. The results show a growing prominence of both domestic and foreign supply factors. Furthermore, over the entire period of 2000Q3-2022Q3, demand shocks contribute more than supply shocks to the changes in the price level. This pa- per also highlights the remarkable role of fiscal policy shocks, while monetary conditions have a minor impact. Additionally, the effectiveness of monetary policy tools is evaluated. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords inflation, SVAR model, monetary policy, supply and demand shocks Title Origin of Current High Inflation in the Czech Economy (2022)
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The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia
Mamonov, Mikhail ; Pestova, Anna
How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR model of the Russian economy, we first apply sign restrictions to isolate shocks to international credit supply to proxy for the financial sanctions shocks. We provide a microeconomic foundation for the sign restriction approach by exploiting the syndicated loan deals in Russia. We then explore the effects of the overall sanctions shocks (financial, trade, technological, etc.) by employing a high-frequency identification (HFI) approach. Our HFI is based on each OFAC/EU sanction announcement and the associated daily changes in the yield-to-maturity of Russia’s US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Our macroeconomic estimates indicate that Russia’s GDP may have lost no more than 0.8% due to the financial sanctions shock, and up to 3.2% due to the overall sanctions shock cumulatively over the 2014–2015 period. In 2017, the respective effects are 0 and 0.5%, and in 2022, they are 8 and 12%. Our cross-sectional estimates show that the real income of richer households declines by 1.5–2.0% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the real income of poorer households rises by 1.2% over the same period. Finally, we find that the real total revenue of large firms with high (low) TFPs declines by 2.2 (4.0)% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the effects on small firms are close to zero. Overall, our results indicate heterogeneous effects of sanctions with richer households residing in big cities and larger firms with high TFPs being affected the most.
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