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Making an investment portfolio of unit trusts by using the fuzzy multiple criteria decision making methods
Borovička, Adam ; Fiala, Petr (advisor) ; Zornerová, Helena (referee) ; Pekár, Juraj (referee)
The thesis deals with investment decision making. It starts from the decision making situation about the making of an investment portfolio of the open unit trusts. The whole decision making process is described, namely the methodical approaches used in terms of the portfolio making procedure. Thus, the main part of this paper focuses on a detailed description of an algorithm of the fuzzy weight estimation method, fuzzy multiple criteria evaluation method and fuzzy multiple objective programming method. The methods are proposed on the basis of current concepts; they conclude the new ideas as well. The fuzzy weight estimation method is able to calculate the weights of criteria according to their linguistically expressed importance. The fuzzy multiple criteria evaluation method accepts uncertain input data in the form of the fuzzy numbers. The alternatives are evaluated by the concept of the preference relations. This method provides a division of the alternatives into the effective and ineffective. The fuzzy multiple objective programming method also works with the uncertain elements as fuzzy numbers. To solve the particular mathematical models, the Bellman's optimality approach is applied. The method is proposed in the interactive form. The decision maker can change a current solution by his/her additional (vague) preferences. The proposed concepts form the two-phase decision making procedure that is applied in the practical situation of the portfolio making in the field of the capital market with open unit trusts offered by the Česká spořitelna investment company. Two types of investors are defined, the investment situations are described, and the results are analyzed in detail. The decision making theory, the fuzzy sets theory and the capital market of collective investment, or with unit trusts, are introduced in a necessary scope. The instigation of my dissertation is to solve the real decision making situation. The investment decision making process is described and the methodical approaches are proposed in order to make the portfolio of unit trusts.
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