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National Repository of Grey Literature 1 records found  Search took 0.02 seconds. 
An evaluation of real GDP growth forecasts
 Kačmareková, Monika ; Jablonský, Petr (advisor) ; Dobrovolný, Marek (referee)
This paper is aimed at verifying the reliability of real GDP growth forecasts for Czech Republic periodically published. Concretely the prediction of different groups of institutions have been examined. It includes analysis of forecasts for the period 2003-2011. Evaluation criteria for assessing their accuracy consist of summary statistics, directional accuracy rate and graphical illustration of avereged prediction. These evaluation methods are important for the hypothesis verification. It has been demonstrated the ability to deliver more accurate forecasts in comparison with earlier period in a specific horizon, next, a rising precision of predictions with declining time horizon, systematic underestimation of forecasts in the time of expansion and overestimation in the time of recession. At last, the conducted analysis displays that czech institutions are doing not considerably better in forecasting real GPD growth.
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