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Kvalita inflačních prognóz České národní banky
Skopalová, Lucie
The aim of this thesis is evaluate quality of inflation forecasts from Czech national bank (CNB). Czech national bank started to create those forecasts after changing to new model of aiming inflation in 1998. The forecasts are issued by CNB quarterly for following 7 quarter years. There will be description of terms that are connected with and that are influencing creating forecasts of CNB, in the theoretical part. Attention will be given to inflation, Czech national bank, its forecasting system and prediction model need there. The main part of work will be dedicated to inflation forecast quality, that are issued be CNB. Quality of up to date forecasts will be evaluated according to various criteria. Among the criteria there are coefficient of determination, mean error, mean sqauarred error, Theil's Inequality coefficient and confidence interval. The results show that the forecasts haven not good describing ability in the long time horizon. It is rather difficult for CNB to estimate inflation tendency correctly in such a long time, because it cannot influence unexpected changes of exogen factors. Forecasts into half year should be regarded as of good quality.
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Inflation targeting in the Czech Republic
Spurná, Jitka ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Hýla, Pavel (referee)
This thesis deals with inflation targeting in the Czech Republic. The first part explains the basic concepts associated with inflation targeting. The thesis clarifies the concept of inflation, monetary policy instruments, types of inflation and their quantification. The analytical part is devoted directly to the situation in the Czech Republic. It explains the reason of the implementetion of this scheme in the CR, implementation challanges and how the CNB dealt with these challanges. A large part of the thesis analyses the deviations from the inflation target. The summarizes the advantages and disadvatages that the monetary policy regime introduced. And then it contains the overall assessment of the success of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic.
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Inflation targeting in central Europe
Halapin, Miroslav ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Brada, Jaroslav (referee)
The diploma thesis focuses on inflation targeting in central Europe. It describes experience of three central European countries (Czech republic, Poland, Hungary) with inflation targeting. First part of thesis deals with theoretical aspects of inflation targeting. Next part brings closer look at application of inflation targeting in above - mentioned countries. Last part of thesis analyzes efficiency of inflation targeting.
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