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Financial health models and bankruptcy prediction models
ONDOKOVÁ, Lucie
The main aim of the master thesis is to compare of different methodologies of financial health models and bankruptcy prediction models and their cause to company classification. The work deals with the applicability of models on the sample of 45 prosperous companies and 45 companies that were initiating in insolvency process. Sample contain about 33 % companies from building industry, 33 % retail, 16,7 % manufacturing industry and 16,7 % of the other industries mainly services. The special kind of contingency table - the confusion matrix - is used in the methodology to calculate sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive, false positive rate, accuracy, error and other classification statistics. Overall model accuracy is obtained as a difference between accuracy and error. Dependencies of models are acquired based on Pearson´s correlation coefficient. The changes (removing of grey zone and testing new cut-off points) in models are tested in the sensitivity analysis. In practise part there are about 12 financial models calculated (Altman Z´, Altman Z´´, Index IN99, IN01 and IN05, Kralicek Quicktest, Zmijewski model, Taffler model and its modification, Index Creditworthiness, Grunwald Site Index, Doucha´s Analysis). Only two financial indicators (ROA and Sales / Assets) in results were important as crucial part for more than one model. Then are classifications of companies in models determined. It shows that the best models according to overall accuracy are Zmijewski and Altman´s Z´´. On the other hand the worst models are index IN99 and both versions of Taffler´s model. The classification is not caused excessively by extreme values, year of the model creation or country of the origin (hypothesis 1). Based on results it is suggested that the bankruptcy prediction is an accurate forecaster of failure up to three years prior to bankruptcy in most examined models (hypothesis 2). It is observed that the type of model and industry influence the classification of models. In the end, the changes based on sensitivity analysis in the worst companies are made. All of three changes have increased overall classification accuracy of models.
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Financial health models and bankruptcy prediction models
MAUNOVÁ, Petra
The aim of this thesis is to demonstrate the limitations and possibilities of using selected financial health models and bankruptcy prediction models in a selected group of companies. In the first part of this work, famous financial health models and bankruptcy prediction models are introduced and described in detail. Among the most important models belong the Altman Z Score, Index IN, Quick test by Kralicek, Grünwald's model etc. In the practical part, selected models are applied to specific enterprises and their evaluation results. The result of the bankruptcy and solvency models is one single final coefficient, which serves as the basis for labelling the enterprise either as solvent or bankrupted. As great advantages of these models could be mentioned their universality, simplicity, inexpensiveness and the fact they are not very time consuming. Still there are certain limitations to the data validity. The three enterprises analysed in 2011 were evaluated as bankrupted according to the models yet are still in operation at present time. It follows that the models only describe the particular financial situation but do not predict bankruptcy. Next, it was also discovered that it is not possible to use only one model for the evaluation of the complex situation of an enterprise, it is necessary to be concerned with the non-financial performance indicators as well. All assumed limitations of the models and possibilities of their usage have been, based on the analysis, confirmed.
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