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Quantification of Enterprise Stability Based on Trend Models
Kovács, Roland ; Doubravský, Karel (referee) ; Dohnal, Mirko (advisor)
The thesis deals with the stability studies, economic models and with their qualitative solutions. Economic problems usually face information shortage and mathematical models are too sensitive to initial values, therefore solutions provided by conventional approaches can be applied only under specific and unrealistic conditions. Qualitative reasoning and qualitative approach bring however new methods but they are following only the trends. The work presents algorithms in order to find a stabilization cycles, thus providing an insight into the most probable behavior of economic systems. By using different case studies the thesis presented broad usability of qualitative approaches and suggests a way of quantifying the stability of different models. The programmed algorithms were created in MATLAB.
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Metaphors and Analogies in Economics and Economic Education
Langer, Tomáš ; Krpálek, Pavel (advisor) ; Šlosár, Rudolf (referee) ; Pavera, Libor (referee)
Presented thesis explores the ground at the intersection of three topics: education, relational thinking and economics. Within the sphere of economic education it investigates the use of concepts known from (i) conceptual metaphor theory, (ii) psychological model of analogical reasoning, (iii) model of generative learning from educational psychology and (iv) existing research on use of metaphors and analogies in natural sciences education. Thesis shows the potential of metaphorical origin of economic terminology for teaching economic concepts and educational use of economic media content. At the same time it proposes a notation for visualizing metaphorical mappings between domains. It addresses economic interpretation from the viewpoint of the relationship between theoretical economic models and actual economic situations, as well as from the viewpoint of the relationship between mathematical structure of the model and its economic meaning. In the first case, it shows interpretative skill, being framed within the revised Bloom taxonomy, as a complex cognitive task, in the second case it develops model of economic interpretation of mathematical structures on the basis of psychological model of analogical reasoning. In both cases it formulates highlights students should know about the analogical nature of economic models. On the basis of the model of generative learning it develops a set of visual methaphors applicable in the introductory topics of microeconomics and macroeconomics and examines effects of their use in the classes of economics. By undertaking such research it initiates the exploration of paths leading in the directions suggested by the theoretical analysis.
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Effects of Fiscal Policy in the DSGE-VAR Framework: The Case of the Czech Republic
Babecký, Jan ; Franta, Michal ; Ryšánek, Jakub
In this paper we explore the potential of the DSGE-VAR modelling approach for examining the effects of fiscal policy. The combination of the VAR and DSGE frameworks leads theoretically to more accurate estimates of impulse responses and consequently of fiscal multipliers. Moreover, the framework allows for discussion about the differences of the effects of fiscal shocks in DSGE and VAR models and to some extent discussion about misspecification in fiscal DSGE models. The DSGE-VAR model is estimated on Czech data covering the period from 1996 to 2011 at quarterly frequency. The government consumption multiplier attains a value close to 0.4 at the horizon of four years. The public investment multiplier is about 0.4 higher, which confirms findings in the literature. On the other hand, the DSGE model alone implies a similar government consumption multiplier but a much lower public investment multiplier, suggesting misspecification of the fiscal DSGE model.
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Quantification of Enterprise Stability Based on Trend Models
Kovács, Roland ; Doubravský, Karel (referee) ; Dohnal, Mirko (advisor)
The thesis deals with the stability studies, economic models and with their qualitative solutions. Economic problems usually face information shortage and mathematical models are too sensitive to initial values, therefore solutions provided by conventional approaches can be applied only under specific and unrealistic conditions. Qualitative reasoning and qualitative approach bring however new methods but they are following only the trends. The work presents algorithms in order to find a stabilization cycles, thus providing an insight into the most probable behavior of economic systems. By using different case studies the thesis presented broad usability of qualitative approaches and suggests a way of quantifying the stability of different models. The programmed algorithms were created in MATLAB.
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Iterated Multi-Step Forecasting with Model Coefficients Changing Across Iterations
Franta, Michal
Iterated multi-step forecasts are usually constructed assuming the same model in each forecasting iteration. In this paper, the model coefficients are allowed to change across forecasting iterations according to the in-sample prediction performance at a particular forecasting horizon. The technique can thus be viewed as a combination of iterated and direct forecasting. The superior point and density forecasting performance of this approach is demonstrated on a standard medium-scale vector autoregression employing variables used in the Smets and Wouters (2007) model of the US economy. The estimation of the model and forecasting are carried out in a Bayesian way on data covering the period 1959Q1–2016Q1.
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On the Sources of Business Cycles: Implications for DSGE Models
Andrle, Michal ; Brůha, Jan ; Solmaz, Serhat
What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The positive co-movement of real output and inflation convincingly argues for a demand story. This feature—robust across time and space—provides a simple smell test for structural macroeconomic models. We propose a simple statistic that can compare data and models. Based on this statistic, we show that the recent vintage of structural economic models has difficulties replicating the stylized facts we document.
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Empirical Analysis of Labor Markets over Business Cycles: An International Comparison
Brůha, Jan ; Polanský, Jiří
The goal of this paper is to document and summarize the main cyclical features of labor market macroeconomic data in advanced countries. We report the second moments (correlations, coherences and volatility) of labor market variables for various data transformations (growth rates and cycles). Then we use dynamic factor models to inquire about the number of orthogonal shocks that drives labor market data dynamics. We also investigate the time-varying nature of these features: we ask whether they are stable over time, especially at times of severe crises such as the Great Recession. Finally, we compare these features across countries to see whether there are groups of countries characterized by similar features, such as labor market institutions. We find that certain features are stable over time and across countries (such as Okun’s Law), while others are not. We also confirm that labor market institutions influence selected characteristics, but to a limited degree only. We find that one or at most two orthogonal shocks seem to drive the cyclical dynamics of labor market variables in most countries. The paper concludes with our interpretation of these findings for structural macroeconomic models.
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