|
|
The role and influence of public economic predictions to the real economic progress
Sequens, Jan ; Hudík, Marek (advisor) ; Jaklín, Jiří (referee)
This paper explores the question of the existence of economic forecasts in three main areas. Firstly, why we need economic predictions and forecasts of economic indicators, secondly whether the predictions match the future real conditions and thirdly whether the forecast can change future progress or value of indicator they predict. The first question can be answered very easily. Economically, philosophically or psychologically, but clearly, we can say that economic predictions, at least in some points, are for our society necessary. For the second question we find ambiguous answer, when we know that predictions can not always predict the future accurately. But predictions can synthesize a large amount of information in a graph and formula, can offer different scenarios for the future with a certain probability, and under certain assumptions, can predict very accurately. Last question - the impact of the prediction on reality and predicted indicators, is based on empirical analysis of the impact of the indicators on reality in shape of collected theoretical background. The conclusion clearly says that predictions really affect reality, but the prediction impact on the actual value of predicted indicators is inconclusive.
|
guest ::
