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Prostorová diferenciace úmrtnosti obyvatelstva v České republice
ŤUKOVÁ, Pavla
The thesis is focused on analysing of the development and spatial differentiation of mortality of the population from 1995 to 2014, because I seemed these years as an appropriate period of time to the aforementioned analysis. The aim is to compile this demographic process on the basis of available data and evaluate it with help of analyzing. The work explains important definitions and concepts associated with mortality, as well as the factors that affect it, on the base of the literature. The theme I have elaborated both in historical terms and in terms of published forecasts for the future. The most important factors as male excess mortality, infant mortality and the most important causes of death I labored at the level of a region, district and country district. Then I drew the conclusion that the planned issues apply at all these levels and on the basis of a summary of all available data. The resulting statistics is presented by graphs, maps and tables.
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Statistical methods in demographic forecasting
Šimpach, Ondřej ; Langhamrová, Jitka (advisor) ; Arltová, Markéta (referee) ; Palát, Milan (referee)
Dissertation thesis creates a complex and modern scheme for stochastic modeling of demographic processes, which is universally applicable to any population in the world. All calculations are described in detail on the data of the Czech Republic. Throughout the work the attention is drawn to the issues, that every analyst must necessarily take into account in order to obtain correct results. Data comes mostly from the Czech Statistical Office database. However, some data matrices had to be calculated for the purposes of the thesis. Particular demographic processes (mortality, fertility and migration) are modeled using selected modern approaches (ARIMA models, Lee-Carter method) and based on the constructed models these processes are forecasted to the future. Using partially projected results a comprehensive demographic projection of the population of the Czech Republic is created up to the year 2050. However, not on the basis of the current state and expert expectations of the future development, but based on sophistically projected demographic events, which are explained using the trends and main components of their previous development. This demographic projection is created in three scenarios (marked SC1, SC2 and SC3), which are made from selected optimal models, presented in particular sections of the work. One part of the thesis is also the backward retropolation of age-specific number of net migrants by sex in the Czech Republic since 1948. On its basis the analysis and prediction of the migration can be done. The thesis is a synthesis of the projections of demographic processess of mortality, fertility, and migration. Final results are confronted with three scenarios of population projections of the Czech Republic created by the Czech Statistical Office and five scenarios of population projections by Eurostat. The purely statistical approach of demographic forecasting in comparison with deterministic models and expert expectations has its positives and negatives. Therefore, the different results due to various methodological approaches are discussed and compared in the conclusion of the thesis.
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