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Posibilities of taking the number of children raised into consideration in the pension system construction
Veselý, Václav ; Fiala, Tomáš (advisor) ; Pechholdová, Markéta (referee)
The subject of diploma thesis is the pension system in the Czech Republic. We warn about the deficit increase in the future and suggest taking the number of children raised into consideration in the pension system construction. Pension system in the Czech Republic is described in detail. The first "pay-as-you-go" pillar represents the main part of the system. It could bring financial problems (if the retirement pension and pension income tax will stay at the same level as now) considering the expected trends in demography. Population projection was calculated using cohort component method (including migration). The threshold for the projection is year 2011, projection is calculated with 100-year horizon. There were also calculated revenues and expenses of the pension system for each projected year. If the expected parameters of the projection will be realized, the deficit of pension system in the hundred year period will reach 9.5 billion Kč (prices 2011). It represents the deficit 95.3 milliard Kč each year in the average. To reduce the deficit it is possible to increase the pension tax paid by productive people. But it could also bring the decline of fertility, because lower income could make people decide to reduce number of children. It would deepen the problems in the pay-as-you-go system. The financial problem of pension system could be solved by taking the number of children raised into consideration of the pension system construction. It would eliminate the situation that it is economically more favourable to be childless during the life. It could also bring the fertility increase. In the diploma thesis the value of the deficit is simulated for the various parameters of pension system and for the various demographic development in the future.
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