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Advanced Prognostic Models in Waste Management
 Smejkalová, Veronika ; Procházka,, Vít (referee) ; Slavík,, Jan (referee) ; Pavlas, Martin (advisor)
The issued Circular economy package defines the measures for the transition from a linear economy to a circular economy. The specific targets are implemented in the legislation of the EU Member States. Waste production forecasts are key information for modifying existing infrastructure to allow a smooth transition to a circular economy. This work presents a universal approach to waste production forecasting using optimization models including data preparation, calculation and processing into a suitable form for users. The forecast emphasizes the preparatory phases and the clean-up of input data from anomalies. The modeling principle is based on trend modeling in historical data with subsequent correction to restore the links between territorial divisions and waste fractions. Forecast uncertainty is described by confidence intervals constructed using a bootstrap approach. The impact of specific measures on the form of waste management can be modeled using projection. The presented methodology is developed in general and is a suitable basis for strategic planning at the local, national and supranational levels.
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