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Forecast of revenue for municipal budget
Špelda, Miroslav ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (advisor) ; Hovorka, Petr (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the quality of forecasts of tax revenues. Detail focuses on the town of Nachod, wherein by means of selected quantitative Methods I am trying to suggest potential estimate for tax revenues. Furthermore, based on publicly available data, analyze ten other similarly sized towns. Comparing prediction cities with the estimate of the Ministry of Finance and the reality. Based on these data, I am trying to prove or disprove the hypothesis that the city predicted earnings consistently underestimate, while the Ministry of Finance is overestimates. The results of the analysis of Nachod based on the possibility of more accurate predictions for income taxes using the method of exponential smoothing. For value added tax and land value tax, then using the method of average growth. The hypothesis can be confirmed only partially. Municipalities actually understate their income often. The Finance Ministry, however, in its prediction does not commit more frequent overstatement.
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Predikce příjmů obecních rozpočtů
Kramoliš, Jakub ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (advisor) ; Kostohryz, Jiří (referee)
The subject of my bachelor thesis is the elaboration of a case study that deals with the preparation of the revenue side of the budget of the municipality Hodslavice. The main aim of my work is to determine the accuracy of the actual estimates of the municipality and to compare the accuracy of predictions of several statistical methods. I use these statistical methods: simple moving average, exponential smoothing, transformation moving average, regression against time with an exponential trend. Drawn from the analysis, I found that for the prediction of each type of revenue, there is a more accurate method than expert's assessment of the budget administrator in Hodslavice, but there can not be applies a single method of prediction for all types of revenues. The most accurate method for predicting taxes of individual revenues is exponential smoothing. However the differences between the predictions by this method and the expert's estimation of the administrator of the budget are minimal. Regression against time was the best in forecasting tax corporation income and value added tax. For real estate tax and non-tax revenue, which the municipality has at least some competence in influencing the future level of revenue appears to be the most accurate method of simple moving averages.
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