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Macroeconomic Responses of Emerging Market Economies to Oil Price Shocks: Analysis by Region and Resource Profile
Togonidze, S. ; Kočenda, Evžen
This study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse how oil price shocks affect macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Findings from existing literature remain inconclusive how macroeconomic variables fare towards shocks, especially in emerging economies. The objective of our study is to uncover if analysis by region (Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and Central Asia) and resource intensity of economies (oil exporters, oil importers, minerals exporters, and less resource intensive). Our unique approach forms part of our contribution to the literature. We find that Latin America and the Caribbean are least affected by oil price shocks, while in East Asia and the Pacific the response of inflation and interest rate to oil price shocks is positive, and output growth is negative. Our analysis by resource endowment fails to show oil price shocks’ ability to explain huge variations in macroeconomic variables in oil importing economies. Further sensitivity analysis using US interest rates as an alternative source of external shocks to emerging economies establishes a significant response of interest rate responses to US interest rate in Europe and Central Asia, and in inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that regardless of resource endowment, the response of output growth and capital to a positive US interest rate shock is negative and significant in EMs. Our results are persuasive that resource intensity and regional factors impact the responsiveness of emerging economies to oil price shocks, thus laying a basis for policy debate.\n
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The Great Inflation of the 1970s and it's impact on the contemporary FED
Hornát, Filip ; Zukerstein, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Fiřtová, Magdalena (referee)
This paper deals with the period of the 1970s Great Inflation in the United States and its impact on the present Federal Reserve System. The seventies after the oil shock were in the United States a period of the so-called stagflation, a mix of high inflation, high unemployment and economic stagnation, or recession. The role of the Fed in this era is discussed. The main thesis of this paper is that the Fed during the Great Inflation has changed markedly, with the basic goals and approaches remaining at the Fed till nowadays. An analysis of the period is made. The author concludes that the period of the Great Inflation really had a major impact on the transformation of the Fed, which more closely resembles its present form than in the post-war era.
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Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Automobile Stock Prices, An Impulse Response Analysis
Malárik, Lukáš ; Jánský, Ivo (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
The goal of this master thesis is to analyze impact of shocks in oil prices to automobile industry stock prices and returns. We decompose oil price shocks on oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks and assess their individual impacts on these stock prices/returns. This is done using the vector autoregression (VAR) methodology which allows us to compute impulse responses, that is the reaction paths on the individual shocks. In addition to linear VARs we also employ threshold VAR models in order to capture nonlinearities in impulse responses and besides the aggregate automobile stock price index we compute these nonlinear impulse responses also for some selected individual car producers. We think that this analysis have two different uses. First, it can be beneficial to stock market investors. Second, it can be used by policymakers in countries such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic, which are relatively heavily dependent on automotive industry. 1
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The Cause of the economic recessions of the 1970s in the U.S.: Oil shocks, or monetary policy?
Hornát, Filip ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Mirvald, Michal (referee)
This paper examines the cause of the U.S. economic downturn of the 1970s, which is still widely discussed by economists. In principle, the previous research has led to two possible explanations: an incorrect monetary policy of the Federal reserve and oil shocks. First, the historical context of the oil shocks and the Feds conduct of monetary policy are outlined. Next, arguments of the authors advocating each explanation are presented. An empirical VAR model is estimated for the period 1960-2014 and then for single periods. Based on these estimates, it is evident that the impact of monetary policy and oil shocks has been changing over the observed period. The author comes to a conclusion that the first oil shock could have caused the subsequent economic downturn. However, monetary policy seems to have caused the downturns after the second oil shock.
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