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Pension Systems in a World with Stagnant Population and Market Inefficiencies: A Comparison
Štěpánek, Martin ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Švarcová, Natálie (referee)
Financial unsustainability of pension systems in developed economies looms large on the horizon due to increasing life expectancy and continuous drop in fertility. In spite of a broad discussion, there has been but a little consensus on appropriate remedy. Besides, the theoretical arguments supporting funded pension systems often build upon the unrealistic assumption of stable financial markets and fair transformation of saved funds into retirement benefits. This work provides an insight into performance of various pension systems in real- world conditions using large-scale simulations of an overlapping generations model based on existing pension schemes in the Czech Republic, Sweden, and Chile. Specifically, my model assumes adverse demographics, individual un- certainty, volatile financial markets' returns, and administrative costs to affect social security systems and estimates magnitude of the effects. According to the results, each pension system seems to be partially advantageous - in pro- motion of economic growth, level of retirement benefits, or protection against market risks - but no scheme is dominant or dominated overall. JEL Classification E27, C68, H55 Keywords pension, OLG, simulation Author's e-mail Stepanek.Martin@hotmail.com Supervisor's e-mail Jaromir.Baxa@centrum.cz
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Essays on labour force and its productivity
Štěpánek, Martin ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Schneider, Ondřej (referee) ; Dybczak, Kamil (referee) ; Yerushalmi, Erez (referee)
This doctoral thesis presents four articles analysing labour force and its productivity. It utilises simulation modelling to assess the impacts of demographic changes, migration or shifts in productivity determinants on public finances and the economies in the Czech Republic and the USA, as well as statistical modelling to evaluate determinants behind workplace productivity. The first three studies assess the topic from a high-level perspective, providing economy-wide projections for the future decades. They also utilise the same core simulation model, an overlapping generations (OLG) framework coded in MATLAB, which is further developed for the particular use in each study. The fourth study, on the other hand, approaches the topic from the opposite direction, analysing the individual-level factors affecting productivity. Specifically, the first article deals with demographic changes -- population ageing and shrinking -- in the context of the Czech pension system. The findings show that the existing system can provide pensions increasing at the rate of change in nominal wages, be financially sustainable in the long term, or increase the default retirement age by only two years in the next decades -- but only two of these three objectives can be achieved at the same time. On the contrary, a structural change...
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Pension Systems in a World with Stagnant Population and Market Inefficiencies: A Comparison
Štěpánek, Martin ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Švarcová, Natálie (referee)
Financial unsustainability of pension systems in developed economies looms large on the horizon due to increasing life expectancy and continuous drop in fertility. In spite of a broad discussion, there has been but a little consensus on appropriate remedy. Besides, the theoretical arguments supporting funded pension systems often build upon the unrealistic assumption of stable financial markets and fair transformation of saved funds into retirement benefits. This work provides an insight into performance of various pension systems in real- world conditions using large-scale simulations of an overlapping generations model based on existing pension schemes in the Czech Republic, Sweden, and Chile. Specifically, my model assumes adverse demographics, individual un- certainty, volatile financial markets' returns, and administrative costs to affect social security systems and estimates magnitude of the effects. According to the results, each pension system seems to be partially advantageous - in pro- motion of economic growth, level of retirement benefits, or protection against market risks - but no scheme is dominant or dominated overall. JEL Classification E27, C68, H55 Keywords pension, OLG, simulation Author's e-mail Stepanek.Martin@hotmail.com Supervisor's e-mail Jaromir.Baxa@centrum.cz
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Political determinants of economic reforms: case study of of pension schemes
Lukeš, Tomáš ; Lehmannová, Zuzana (advisor) ; Klosová, Anna (referee)
The work aims to explain the character and success/failure of pension reforms with help of political explanatory variables. The constitution of given political system is considered, as well as the actual political alignment and the role of electorate, in explaining the processes underlying the pension scheme reforms - a major topic of today's aging societies. The case study approach is used, utilising the recent experience of Great Britain and Sweden in reforming the pensions. The findings are compared with the results and conclusions suggested by a dynamic economic model of pension scheme switch, demonstrating eventually what factors and conditions are favorable for pension reforms, both from the political and the economic point of view.
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