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Testing validity of the ABCT in case of the Czech Republic between years 1996 and 2012.
Střeleček, Tomáš ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Klesla, Arnošt (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to test the validity of The Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) for The Czech Republic between years 1996 and 2013 on quarterly data. In the first part, I concentrated on the definition of business cycle and theoretical premises of The Austrian Business Cycle Theory. In application part, I translated the first sector of hypothesis into dynamic models which were then estimated by method called Granger causality. The results show that monetary expansion in any of four previous quarters leads to decrease in monetary interest rate. Concerning mechanism of monetary expansion effect, the crucial are changes of the monetary interest rate in relation to the natural interest rate. I affirmed conformity of the ABCT: monetary expansion changes structure of interest rates and as a result of such shock there is an increase in roundabout productions. The difference between decrease in monetary interest rate and increase in roundabout productions is half a year. Other results were weaker. I have found statistically significant correlation, not a relation of determination, between decrease in monetary interest rate and increase in investments' expenditures. Quantitative methods did not show confirmation of predictions of the ABCT for structure of inflation. Second sector of hypothesis was incorporated into static model which I estimated by ordinary least squares. Results confirmed predictions of the ABCT that at the beginning of economic expansion there is increase in roundabout productions. Additionally, another prediction of the ABCT was confirmed: at the beginning of expansion there is an increase in producers' prices and there is a relative increase in consumers' prices from the second half of expansion. On average, an increase in investment expenditures during expansion was not confirmed. In summary, there is an excessive consumption and there is an excessive increase in production at the peak of economic fluctuation, the economy is pushed beyond its production possibilities frontier. Explanation of the ABCT was not invalidated for Czech economy.
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Forecast of the Future Development of the Current Business Crisis Using Tools of the Austrian School of Economics
Sehnalová, Tereza ; Svoboda, Miroslav (advisor) ; Mirvald, Michal (referee)
This paper is based on the theoretical framework given by the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. This theory explains clearly the causes, process and consequences of trade cycles that are inevitable parts of modern economies. Based on this framework, there was built a model trying to illustrate the impact of indicators standing behind the origin of business cycles on production structure of the USA examined on monthly data from years 1984 to 2009. The results of this model are conformable with predictions given by the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Despite this, it is not possible to predict the future development of the US economy till the end of 2010 using this model, due to many problems that minimize relevance of such forecast. Nevertheless, it is possible to make prediction using the theory explained by the Austrian school of economics.
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